Publications

The Surface Ocean CO₂ Atlas (SOCAT) of CO₂ fugacity (fCO₂) observations is a key resource supporting annual assessments of CO₂ uptake by the ocean and its side effects on the marine ecosystem. SOCAT data are usually released with a lag of up to 1.5 years which hampers timely quantification of recent variations of carbon fluxes between the Earth System components, not only with the ocean. This study uses a statistical ensemble approach to analyze fCO₂ with a latency of one month only based on the previous SOCAT release and a series of predictors. Results indicate a modest degradation in a retrospective prediction test for 2021-2022. The generated fCO₂ and fluxes for January-August 2023 show a progressive reduction in the Equatorial Pacific source following the La Niña retreat. A breaking-record decrease in the northeastern Atlantic CO₂ sink has been diagnosed on account of the marine heatwave event in June 2023.

An unprecedented marine heatwave (MHW) event occurred in the middle-high latitudes of the western North Pacific during the summer of 2022. We demonstrate that excessive precipitation thousands of kilometers away fuels this extreme MHW event in July 2022. In the upper atmosphere, a persistent atmospheric blocking system, forming over the MHW region, reduces cloud cover and increases shortwave radiation at the ocean surface, leading to high sea surface temperatures. Atmospheric perturbations induced by latent heat release from the extreme precipitation in the Indian summer monsoon region enhance this atmospheric blocking through the propagation of quasi-stationary Rossby waves. Our hypothesis is verified by using a numerical model that is forced with the observed atmospheric anomalous diabatic heating. This study sheds light on how a subtropical extreme event can fuel another extreme event at middle-high latitudes through an atmospheric teleconnection.

We investigate the use of atmospheric oxygen (O₂) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) measurements for the estimation of the fossil fuel component of atmospheric CO₂ in the UK. Atmospheric potential oxygen (APO) - a tracer that combines O₂ and CO₂, minimizing the influence of terrestrial biosphere fluxes - is simulated at three sites in the UK, two of which make APO measurements. We present a set of model experiments that estimate the sensitivity of APO simulations to key inputs: fluxes from the ocean, fossil fuel flux magnitude and distribution, the APO baseline, and the exchange ratio of O₂ to CO₂ fluxes from fossil fuel combustion and the terrestrial biosphere. To estimate the influence of uncertainties in ocean fluxes, we compare three ocean O₂ flux estimates from the NEMO-ERSEM, the ECCO-Darwin ocean model, and the Jena CarboScope (JC) APO inversion. The sensitivity of APO to fossil fuel emission magnitudes and to terrestrial biosphere and fossil fuel exchange ratios is investigated through Monte Carlo sampling within literature uncertainty ranges and by comparing different inventory estimates. We focus our model-data analysis on the year 2015 as ocean fluxes are not available for later years. As APO measurements are only available for one UK site at this time, our analysis focuses on the Weybourne station. Model-data comparisons for two additional UK sites (Heathfield and Ridge Hill) in 2021, using ocean flux climatologies, are presented in the Supplement. Of the factors that could potentially compromise simulated APO-derived fossil fuel CO₂ (ffCO₂) estimates, we find that the ocean O₂ flux estimate has the largest overall influence at the three sites in the UK. At times, this influence is comparable in magnitude to the contribution of simulated fossil fuel CO₂ to simulated APO. We find that simulations using different ocean fluxes differ from each other substantially. No single model estimate, or a model estimate that assumed zero ocean flux, provided a significantly closer fit than any other. Furthermore, the uncertainty in the ocean contribution to APO could lead to uncertainty in defining an appropriate regional background from the data. Our findings suggest that the contribution of non-terrestrial sources needs to be better accounted for in model simulations of APO in the UK to reduce the potential influence on inferred fossil fuel CO₂ using APO.

The Pine Island and Thwaites Ice Shelves (PIIS/TIS) in the Amundsen Sea are melting rapidly and impacting global sea levels. The thermocline depth (TD) variability, the interface between cold Winter Water and warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW), at the PIIS/TIS front strongly correlates with basal melt rates, but the drivers of its interannual variability remain uncertain. Here, using an ocean model, we propose that the strength of the eastern Amundsen Sea on-shelf circulation primarily controls TD variability and consequent PIIS/TIS melt rates. The TD variability occurs because the on-shelf circulation meanders following the submarine glacial trough, creating vertical velocity through bottom Ekman dynamics. We suggest that a strong or weak ocean circulation, possibly linked to remote winds in the Bellingshausen Sea, generates corresponding changes in bottom Ekman convergence, which modulates mCDW upwelling and TD variability. We show that interannual variability of off-shelf zonal winds has a minor effect on ocean heat intrusion into PIIS/TIS cavities, contrary to the widely accepted concept.

The South China Sea (SCS) is the largest marginal sea in the northwestern Pacific, and it is known for its complex multiscale dynamic processes, including basin-scale circulations, mesoscale eddies, submesoscale processes (submesoscales), and small-scale internal gravity waves. Compared with dynamic processes of other scales, submesoscales are a relatively new dynamic concept; they have gained rapidly increasing attention in recent decades due to their uniquely important roles in oceanic dynamics and biogeochemistry. Considerable progress on submesoscales has been achieved by the SCS regional oceanography community due to improvements in observation and simulation capabilities in the past decade. This paper comprehensively reviews recent research advances on the dynamic aspects of submesoscales in the SCS, including submesoscale resolving/permitting observations and simulations; the general characteristics, spatiotemporal variations, and generation mechanisms of submesoscales; and the roles of submesoscales in energy cascade and vertical tracer transport and the associated parameterizations. The most important advances are as follows: (a) Novel submesoscale observations have been made in the SCS, such as through submesoscale and mesoscale nested mooring arrays. (b) Findings have shown that the spatiotemporal characteristics and generation mechanisms of submesoscales in the SCS are regionally dependent. (c) A generation mechanism called mixed transitional layer instability (MTI) was proposed, and its strength is significantly modulated by strain-induced frontogenesis. (d) A new parameterization of submesoscale vertical buoyancy flux was developed based on the mechanism of MTI modulated by frontogenesis. In addition to reviewing recent advances in this field, this paper presents research prospects on SCS submesoscales.

Along with the mean sea level rise due to climate change, the sea level exhibits natural variations at a large number of different time scales. One of the most important is the one linked with the seasonal cycle. In the Northern Hemisphere winter, the sea level is as much as 20 cm below its summer values in some locations. It is customary to associate these variations with the seasonal cycle of the sea surface net heat flux which drives an upper-ocean thermal expansion creating a positive steric sea level anomaly. Here, using a novel framework based on steric sea level variance budget applied to observations and to the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean state estimate, we demonstrate that the steric sea level seasonal cycle amplitude results from a balance between the seasonal sea surface net heat flux and the oceanic advective processes. Moreover, for up to 50% of the ocean surface, surface heat fluxes act to damp the seasonal steric sea level cycle amplitude, which is instead forced by oceanic advection processes. We also show that eddies play an important role in damping the steric sea level seasonal cycle. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the steric sea level mechanisms which is crucial to ensure accurate and reliable climate projections.

Based on OFES outputs verified by mooring observations, the seasonal characteristics in the middepth (1,000-3,000 m) equatorial Pacific Ocean are investigated in detail. The seasonal upward-propagating signals, consisting of one positive and one negative anomaly, are identified at the equator. The harmonic analyses indicate that the seasonal variations in the middepth equatorial Pacific Ocean originate from the downward-propagating energy dominated by the first meridional modes of Rossby waves. The superposition of first and second baroclinic modes of Rossby waves could reproduce the seasonal variations. Furthermore, a series of superposition experiments show that the phase lag between the two modes needs to be in the range of 0 to π to cause upward phase propagation. It implies that the baroclinic modes in the seasonal variations may not be generated simultaneously so that the Rossby waves with specific phase lag can cause upward-propagating signals in the middepth equatorial Pacific Ocean. This new finding will enhance the understanding of seasonal variations in the middepth equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The South China Sea (SCS) is a semi-enclosed marginal sea linked to the broader oceans via various geographically constrained channels. Beneath the main thermocline depth, Luzon Strait is the only conduit for water-mass exchanges. Observations indicate a substantial seasonal variability in the inflow transport of deep water from the Pacific Ocean. This study aims to identify and examine key drivers for such seasonal changes. It is found that seasonal variability of the deep-water transport into the SCS is primarily driven by surface wind stress. An imbalance in wind-driven exchanges of surface water between the SCS and external seas demands compensational transports in subsurface layers so that the net volume transport into the SCS is conserved, resulting in seasonal variations in deep-water overflow. Changes in Karimata Strait exert a particularly influential impact on deep-water inflow, likely due to its unique position as the sole connecting channel across the Equator.

We explore historical variability in the volume of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) using ECCO, an ocean state estimate configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm). The model's adjoint, a linearization of the MITgcm, is set up to output the lagged sensitivity of the water mass volume to surface boundary conditions. This allows us to reconstruct the evolution of LSW volume over recent decades using historical surface wind stress, heat, and freshwater fluxes. Each of these boundary conditions contributes significantly to the LSW variability that we recover, but these impacts are associated with different geographical fingerprints and arise over a range of time lags. We show that the volume of LSW accumulated in the Labrador Sea exhibits a delayed response to surface wind stress and buoyancy forcing outside the convective interior of the Labrador Sea at important locations in the North Atlantic Ocean. In particular, patterns of wind and surface density anomalies can act as a "traffic controller" and regulate the North Atlantic Current's (NAC's) transport of warm and saline subtropical water masses that are precursors for the formation of LSW. This propensity for a delayed response of LSW to remote forcing allows us to predict a limited yet substantial and significant fraction of LSW variability at least 1 year into the future. Our analysis also enables us to attribute LSW variability to different boundary conditions and to gain insight into the major mechanisms that contribute to volume anomalies in this deep water mass. We point out the important role of key processes that promote the formation of LSW in both the Irminger and Labrador seas: buoyancy loss and preconditioning along the NAC pathway and in the Iceland Basin, the Irminger Sea, and the Nordic Seas.

The Southern Ocean hosts a winter deep mixing band (DMB) near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current's (ACC) northern boundary, playing a pivotal role in Subantarctic Mode Water formation. Here, we investigate what controls the presence and geographical extent of the DMB. Using observational data, we construct seasonal climatologies of surface buoyancy fluxes, Ekman buoyancy transport, and upper stratification. The strength of the upper-ocean stratification is determined using the columnar buoyancy index, defined as the buoyancy input necessary to produce a 250 m deep mixed layer. It is found that the DMB lies precisely where the autumn-winter buoyancy loss exceeds the columnar buoyancy found in late summer. The buoyancy loss decreases towards the south, while in the north the stratification is too strong to produce deep mixed layers. Although this threshold is also crossed in the Agulhas Current and East Australian Current regions, advection of buoyancy is able to stabilise the stratification. The Ekman buoyancy transport has a secondary impact on the DMB extent due to the compensating effects of temperature and salinity transports on buoyancy. Changes in surface temperature drive spatial variations in the thermal expansion coefficient (TEC). These TEC variations are necessary to explain the limited meridional extent of the DMB. We demonstrate this by comparing buoyancy budgets derived using varying TEC values with those derived using a constant TEC value. Reduced TEC in colder waters leads to decreased winter buoyancy loss south of the DMB, yet substantial heat loss persists. Lower TEC values also weaken the effect of temperature stratification, partially compensating for the effect of buoyancy loss damping. TEC modulation impacts both the DMB characteristics and its meridional extent.

The combination of taxa and size classes of phytoplankton that coexist at any location affects the structure of the marine food web and the magnitude of carbon fluxes to the deep ocean. But what controls the patterns of this community structure across environmental gradients remains unclear. Here, we focus on the North East Pacific Transition Zone, a ~10° region of latitude straddling warm, nutrient-poor subtropical and cold, nutrient-rich subpolar gyres. Data from three cruises to the region revealed intricate patterns of phytoplankton community structure: poleward increases in the number of cell size classes; increasing biomass of picoeukaryotes and diatoms; decreases in diazotrophs and Prochlorococcus; and both increases and decreases in Synechococcus. These patterns can only be partially explained by existing theories. Using data, theory, and numerical simulations, we show that the patterns of plankton distributions across the transition zone are the result of gradients in nutrient supply rates, which control a range of complex biotic interactions. We examine how interactions such as size-specific grazing, multiple trophic strategies, shared grazing between several phytoplankton size classes and heterotrophic bacteria, and competition for multiple resources can individually explain aspects of the observed community structure. However, it is the combination of all these interactions together that is needed to explain the bulk compositional patterns in phytoplankton across the North East Pacific Transition Zone. The synthesis of multiple mechanisms is essential for us to begin to understand the shaping of community structure over large environmental gradients.

Meridional heat transport induced by oceanic mesoscale eddies (EHT) plays a significant role in the heat budget of Southern Ocean (SO) but the decadal trends in EHT and its associated mechanisms are still obscure. Here, this scientific issue is investigated by combining concurrent satellite observations and Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2) reanalysis data over the 24 years between 1993-2016. The results reveal that the surface EHT from both satellite and ECCO2 data consistently show decadal poleward increasing trends in the SO, particularly in the latitude band of Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). In terms of average in the ACC band, the ECCO2-derived EHT over the upper 1000 m has a linear trend of 1.1×10⁻² PW per decade or 16% per decade compared with its time-mean value of 0.07 PW. Diagnostic analysis based on "mixing length" theory suggests that the decadal strengthening eddy kinetic energy (EKE) is the dominant mechanism for the increase of EHT in the SO. By performing energy budget analysis, we further find that the decadal increase of EKE is mainly caused by the strengthened baroclinic instability of large-scale circulation that converts more available potential energy to EKE. For the strengthened baroclinic instability in the SO, it is attributed to the increasing large-scale wind stress work on the large-scale circulation corresponding to the positive phase of Southern Annular Mode between 1993-2016. The decadal trends in EHT identified here may help understand decadal variations of heat storage and sea-ice extent in the SO.

In recent decades, the Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass through glacier retreat and ice flow acceleration. This mass loss is linked with variations in submarine melt, yet existing ocean models are either coarse global simulations focused on decadal-scale variability or fine-scale simulations for process-based investigations. Here, we unite these scales with a framework to downscale from a global state estimate (15 km) into a regional model (3 km) that resolves circulation on the continental shelf. We further downscale into a fjord-scale model (500 m) that resolves circulation inside fjords and quantifies melt. We demonstrate this approach in Scoresby Sund, East Greenland, and find that interannual variations in submarine melt at Daugaard-Jensen glacier induced by ocean temperature variability are consistent with the decadal changes in glacier ice dynamics. This study provides a framework by which coarse-resolution models can be refined to quantify glacier submarine melt for future ice sheet projections.

In the boreal spring of 2023, an extreme coastal El Niño struck the coastal regions of Peru and Ecuador, causing devastating rainfalls, flooding, and record dengue outbreaks. Observations and ocean model experiments reveal that northerly alongshore winds and westerly wind anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, initially associated with a record-strong Madden-Julian Oscillation and cyclonic disturbance off Peru in March, drove the coastal warming through suppressed coastal upwelling and downwelling Kelvin waves. Atmospheric model simulations indicate that the coastal warming in turn favors the observed wind anomalies over the far eastern tropical Pacific by triggering atmospheric deep convection. This implies a positive feedback between the coastal warming and the winds, which further amplifies the coastal warming. In May, the seasonal background cooling precludes deep convection and the coastal Bjerknes feedback, leading to the weakening of the coastal El Niño. This coastal El Niño is rare but predictable at 1 month lead, which is useful to protect lives and properties.

Extracting balanced geostrophic motions (BM) from sea surface height (SSH) observations obtained by wide-swath altimetry holds great significance in enhancing our understanding of oceanic dynamic processes at submesoscale wavelength. However, SSH observations derived from wide-swath altimetry are characterized by high spatial resolution while relatively low temporal resolution, thereby posing challenges to extract the BM from a single SSH snapshot. To address this issue, this paper proposes a deep learning model called the BM-UBM Network, which takes an instantaneous SSH snapshot as input and outputs the projection corresponding to the BM. Training experiments are conducted both in the Gulf Stream and South China Sea, and three metrics are considered to diagnose model's outputs. The favorable results highlight the potential capability of the BM-UBM Network to process SSH measurements obtained by wide-swath altimetry.

The ice shelves in the Bellingshausen Sea are melting and thinning rapidly due to modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) intrusions carrying heat toward ice-shelf cavities. Observations are, however, sparse in time and space, and extensive model-data comparisons have never been possible. Here, using a circulation model of the region and ship-based observations, we show that the simulated water mass distributions in several troughs traversing mCDW inflows are in good agreement with observations, implying that our model has the skills to simulate hydrographic structures as well as on-shelf ocean circulations. It takes 7.9 and 11.7 months for mCDW to travel to the George VI Ice Shelf cavities through the Belgica and Marguerite troughs, respectively. Ice-shelf melting is mainly caused by mCDW intrusions along the Belgica and Marguerite troughs, with the heat transport through the former being ∼2.8 times larger than that through the latter. The mCDW intrusions toward the George VI Ice Shelf show little seasonal variability, while those toward the Venable Ice Shelf show seasonal variability, with higher velocities in summer likely caused by coastal trapped waves. We also conduct particle experiments tracking glacial meltwater. After 2 years of model integration, ∼33% of the released particles are located in the Amundsen Sea, supporting a linkage between Bellingshausen Sea ice-shelf meltwater and Amundsen Sea upper ocean hydrography.

Accurate estimation of changes in the global hydrological cycle over the historical record is important for model evaluation and understanding future trends. Freshwater flux trends cannot be accurately measured directly, so quantification of change often relies on ocean salinity trends. However, anthropogenic forcing has also induced ocean transport change, which imprints on salinity. We find that this ocean transport affects the surface salinity of the saltiest regions (the subtropics) while having little impact on the surface salinity in other parts of the globe. We present a method based on linear response theory which accounts for the regional impact of ocean circulation changes while estimating freshwater fluxes from ocean tracers. Testing on data from the Community Earth System Model large ensemble, we find that our method can recover the true amplification of freshwater fluxes, given thresholded statistical significance values for salinity trends. We apply the method to observations and conclude that from 1975-2019, the hydrological cycle has amplified by 5.04±1.27 % per degree Celsius of surface warming.

Temporal and spatial variations in the ocean surface mixed layer are important for the climate and ecological systems. During 1980-2019, the Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) mixed layer depth (MLD) displays a basin-wide shoaling trend that is absent in the other basins within 40°S-40°N. The SIO MLD shoaling is mostly prominent in austral winter with deep climatology MLD, substantially weakening the MLD seasonality. Moreover, the SIO MLD changes are primarily caused by a southward shift of the subtropical anticyclonic winds and hence ocean gyre, associated with a strengthening of the Southern Annular Mode, in recent decades for both winter and summer. However, the poleward-shifted subtropical ocean circulation preferentially shoals the SIO MLD in winter when the meridional MLD gradient is sharp but not in summer when the gradient is flat. This highlights the distinct subtropical MLD response to meridional mitigation in winds due to different background oceanic conditions across seasons.

Development of ocean measurement technologies can improve monitoring of the global Ocean Heat Content (OHC) and Heat Storage Rate (HSR) that serve as early-warning indices for climate-critical circulation processes such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and provide real-time OHC assessments for tropical cyclone forecast models. This paper examines the potential of remotely measuring ocean temperature profiles using a simulated Brillouin lidar for calculating ocean HSR. A series of data analysis ('Nature') and Observational Systems Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) were carried out using 26 years (1992-2017) of daily mean temperature and salinity outputs from the ECCOv4r4 ocean circulation model. The focus of this study is to compare various OSSEs carried out to measure the HSR using a simulated Brillouin lidar against the HSR calculated from the ECCOv4r4 model results. Brillouin lidar simulations are used to predict the probability of detecting a return lidar signal under varying sampling strategies. Correlations were calculated for the difference between sampling strategies. These comparisons ignore the measurement errors inherent in a Brillouin lidar. Brillouin lidar technology and instruments are known to contain numerous, instrument-dependent errors and remain an engineering challenge. A significant decrease in the ability to measuring global ocean HSRs is a consequence of measuring ocean temperature from nadir-pointing instruments that can only take measurements along-track. Other sources of errors include the inability to fully profile ocean regions with deep mixed layers, such as the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, and ocean regions with high light attenuation levels.

Subantarctic mode waters have low stratification and are formed through subduction from thick winter mixed layers in the Southern Ocean. To investigate how surface forcing affects the stratification in mode water formation regions in the Southern Ocean, a set of adjoint sensitivity experiments are conducted. The objective function is the annual-average stratification over the mode water formation region, which is evaluated from potential temperature and salinity adjoint sensitivity experiments. The analysis of impacts, from the product of sensitivities and forcing variability, identifies the separate effects of the wind stress, heat flux, and freshwater flux, revealing that the dominant control on stratification is from surface heat fluxes, as well as a smaller effect from zonal wind stress. The adjoint sensitivities of stratification to surface heat flux reveal a surprising change in sign over 2 years lead time: surface cooling leads to the expected initial local decrease in stratification, but there is a delayed response leading to an increase in stratification. This delayed response in stratification involves effective atmospheric damping of the surface thermal contribution, so that eventually the oppositely-signed advective haline contribution dominates. This two-phase response of stratification is found to hold over mode water formation regions in the South Indian and Southeast Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean, where there are strong advective flows linked to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.

Acoustic propagation in the Beaufort Sea is particularly sensitive to upper-ocean sound-speed structure due to the presence of a subsurface duct known as the Beaufort duct. Comparisons of acoustic predictions based on existing Arctic models with predictions based on in situ data collected by Seaglider vehicles in the summer of 2017 show differences in the strength, depth, and number of ducts, highlighting the importance of in situ data. These differences have a significant effect on the later, more intense portion of the acoustic time front referred to as reverse geometric dispersion, where lower-order modes arrive prior to the final cutoff.

Observation-based data reconstructions of global surface ocean carbonate system variables play an essential role in monitoring the recent status of ocean carbon uptake and ocean acidification, as well as their impacts on marine organisms and ecosystems. So far, ongoing efforts are directed towards exploring new approaches to describe the complete marine carbonate system and to better recover its fine-scale features. In this respect, our research activities within the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) aim to develop a sustainable production chain of observation-derived global ocean carbonate system datasets at high space-time resolutions. As the start of the long-term objective, this study introduces a new global 0.25° monthly reconstruction, namely CMEMS-LSCE (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) for the period 1985-2021. The CMEMS-LSCE reconstruction derives datasets of six carbonate system variables, including surface ocean partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂), total alkalinity (AT), total dissolved inorganic carbon (CT), surface ocean pH, and saturation states with respect to aragonite (Ωar) and calcite (Ωca). Reconstructing pCO₂ relies on an ensemble of neural network models mapping gridded observation-based data provided by the Surface Ocean CO₂ ATlas (SOCAT). Surface ocean AT is estimated with a multiple-linear-regression approach, and the remaining carbonate variables are resolved by CO₂ system speciation given the reconstructed pCO₂ and AT; 1σ uncertainty associated with these estimates is also provided. Here, σ stands for either the ensemble standard deviation of pCO₂ estimates or the total uncertainty for each of the five other variables propagated through the processing chain with input data uncertainty. We demonstrate that the 0.25° resolution pCO₂ product outperforms a coarser spatial resolution (1°) thanks to higher data coverage nearshore and a better description of horizontal and temporal variations in pCO₂ across diverse ocean basins, particularly in the coastal-open-ocean continuum. Product qualification with observation-based data confirms reliable reconstructions with root-mean-square deviation from observations of less than 8 %, 4 %, and 1 % relative to the global mean of pCO₂, AT (CT), and pH. The global average 1σ uncertainty is below 5 % and 8 % for pCO₂ and Ωar (Ωca), 2 % for AT and CT, and 0.4 % for pH relative to their global mean values. Both model-observation misfit and model uncertainty indicate that coastal data reproduction still needs further improvement, wherein high temporal and horizontal gradients of carbonate variables and representative uncertainty from data sampling would be taken into account as a priority. This study also presents a potential use case of the CMEMS-LSCE carbonate data product in tracking the recent state of ocean acidification. The data associated with this study are available at https://doi.org/10.14768/a2f0891b-763a-49e9-af1b-78ed78b16982 (Chau et al., 2023).

Melting of ice shelves can energize a wide range of ocean currents, from three-dimensional turbulence to relatively large-scale boundary currents. Here, we conduct high-resolution simulations of the western Amundsen Sea to show that submesoscale eddies are prevalent inside ice shelf cavities. The simulations indicate energetic submesoscale eddies at the top and bottom ocean boundary layers, regions with sharp topographic slopes and strong lateral buoyancy gradients. These eddies play a substantial role in the vertical and lateral (along-isopycnal) heat advection toward the ice shelf base, enhancing the basal melting in all simulated cavities. In turn, the meltwater provides strong buoyancy gradients that energize the submesoscale variability, forming a positive loop that could affect the overall efficiency of heat exchange between the ocean and the ice shelf cavity. Our study implies that submesoscale-induced enhancement of basal melting may be a ubiquitous process that needs to be parameterized in coarse-resolution climate models.

We investigate the interaction between an anticyclonic eddy (AE) and semidiurnal internal tide (SIT) on the continental slope of the northeastern South China Sea (SCS), using a high spatiotemporal resolution numerical model. Two key findings are as follows: first, the AE promotes energy conversion from low-mode to higher-mode SIT. Additionally, production terms indicate that energy is also transferred from the SIT field to the eddy field at an average rate of 3.0 mW m⁻² (accounting for 7 % of the incoming energy flux of SIT when integrated over the eddy diameter). Second, the AE can modify the spatial distribution of tidal-induced dissipation by refracting, scattering, and reflecting low-mode SIT. The phase and group velocities of the SIT are significantly influenced by the eddy field, resulting in a northward or southward shift in the internal tidal rays. These findings deepen our understanding of the complex interactions between AE and SIT, as well as their impacts on energy conversion, wave propagation, and coastal processes.

Seismic ocean thermometry uses sound waves generated by repeating earthquakes to measure temperature change in the deep ocean. In this study, waves generated by earthquakes along the Japan Trench and received at Wake Island are used to constrain temperature variations in the Kuroshio Extension region. This region is characterized by energetic mesoscale eddies and large decadal variability, posing a challenging sampling problem for conventional ocean observations. The seismic measurements are obtained from a hydrophone station off and a seismic station on Wake Island, with the seismic station's digital record reaching back to 1997. These measurements are combined in an inversion for the time and azimuth dependence of the range-averaged deep temperatures, revealing lateral and temporal variations due to Kuroshio Extension meanders, mesoscale eddies, and decadal water mass displacements. These results highlight the potential of seismic ocean thermometry for better constraining the variability and trends in deep-ocean temperatures. By overcoming the aliasing problem of point measurements, these measurements complement existing ship- and float-based hydrographic measurements.

During the summer of 2016, the northern East China Sea and the southern Yellow Sea (NECS-SYS) experienced one of the most severe and devastating marine heatwaves (MHWs) on record, with a temperature anomaly exceeding 4°C. This shallow semi-enclosed continental shelf region is widely recognized as a significant hotspot for MHWs with associated incidences of harmful algae blooms. Previous studies have highlighted the importance of mixed layer shoaling as a crucial factor in the genesis of MHWs in the global ocean. The current study employed the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model reanalysis data set during 1994-2015 to delve into the mechanisms driving mixed layer shoaling during NECS-SYS MHW genesis. Our findings reveal the significant role of the northward propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in promoting MHW genesis and intensification. Specifically, boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation phases 5, 6, and 7 contribute to the favorable conditions that facilitate MHW formation by inducing mixed layer shoaling and increasing solar influx, with mixed layer shoaling playing a more dominant role. The current study provides insights into the relative influences of wind, salinity, and temperature on mixed layer shoaling. We observe that wind plays the most significant role in mixed layer shoaling, followed by temperature and salinity. The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation induced wind relaxation, increased shortwave radiation, and freshwater influx lead sea surface temperature by 7, 5, and 4 days, respectively. Importantly, mixed layer shoaling leads SST anomalies by 1-2 days. Therefore, the current study also suggests an intraseasonal predictability source for NECS-SYS MHWs.

In the equatorial Indian Ocean, the largest subseasonal temperature variations in the upper ocean are observed below the mixed layer. Subsurface processes can influence mixed layer temperature and consequently air-sea coupling. However, the physical processes driving temperature variability at these depths are not well quantified. During the boreal winter, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) partly drives upper ocean heat content (OHC) variations. Therefore, to understand processes driving subseasonal OHC variability in the equatorial Indian Ocean, we use an observationally constrained, physically consistent ocean state estimate from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) Consortium. Using a heat budget analysis, we show that the main driver of subseasonal OHC variability in the ECCO ocean state estimate is horizontal advection. Along the equator, OHC variations are driven by zonal advection while the role of meridional advection becomes more important away from the equator. During the active phase of the MJO, net air-sea heat fluxes damp OHC variability along the equator, while away from the equator net air-sea heat fluxes partly drive OHC variability. Equatorial OHC variations are found to be associated with processes driven by Kelvin and Rossby waves consistent with previous studies. By quantifying the physical processes, we highlight the important role of ocean dynamics in contributing to the observed variations of subseasonal OHC in the equatorial Indian Ocean.

One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse because of the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in complex global climate models by strong freshwater forcing, the processes of an AMOC tipping event have so far not been investigated. Here, we show results of the first tipping event in the Community Earth System Model, including the large climate impacts of the collapse. Using these results, we develop a physics-based and observable early warning signal of AMOC tipping: the minimum of the AMOC-induced freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic. Reanalysis products indicate that the present-day AMOC is on route to tipping. The early warning signal is a useful alternative to classical statistical ones, which, when applied to our simulated tipping event, turn out to be sensitive to the analyzed time interval before tipping.

The Southern Ocean plays a major role in controlling the evolution of Antarctic glaciers and in turn their impact on sea level rise. We present the Southern Ocean high-resolution (SOhi) simulation of the MITgcm ocean model to reproduce ice-ocean interaction at 1/24° around Antarctica, including all ice shelf cavities and oceanic tides. We evaluate the model accuracy on the continental shelf using Marine Mammals Exploring the Oceans Pole to Pole data and compare the results with three other MITgcm ocean models (ECCO4, SOSE, and LLC4320) and the ISMIP6 temperature reconstruction. Below 400 m, all the models exhibit a warm bias on the continental shelf, but the bias is reduced in the high-resolution simulations. We hypothesize some of the bias is due to an overestimation of sea ice cover, which reduces heat loss to the atmosphere. Both high-resolution and accurate bathymetry are required to improve model accuracy around Antarctica.

The coastal ocean contributes to regulating atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations by taking up carbon dioxide (CO₂) and releasing nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄). In this second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2), we quantify global coastal ocean fluxes of CO₂, N₂O and CH₄ using an ensemble of global gap-filled observation-based products and ocean biogeochemical models. The global coastal ocean is a net sink of CO₂ in both observational products and models, but the magnitude of the median net global coastal uptake is ∼60% larger in models (−0.72 vs. −0.44 PgC year⁻¹, 1998-2018, coastal ocean extending to 300 km offshore or 1,000 m isobath with area of 77 million km²). We attribute most of this model-product difference to the seasonality in sea surface CO₂ partial pressure at mid- and high-latitudes, where models simulate stronger winter CO₂ uptake. The coastal ocean CO₂ sink has increased in the past decades but the available time-resolving observation-based products and models show large discrepancies in the magnitude of this increase. The global coastal ocean is a major source of N₂O (+0.70 PgCO₂-e year⁻¹ in observational product and +0.54 PgCO₂ -e year⁻¹ in model median) and CH₄ (+0.21 PgCO₂-e year⁻¹ in observational product), which offsets a substantial proportion of the coastal CO₂ uptake in the net radiative balance (30%-60% in CO₂-equivalents), highlighting the importance of considering the three greenhouse gases when examining the influence of the coastal ocean on climate.

The Kuroshio Current (KC) in the East China Sea is one of the most prominent components of the ocean circulation system in the North Pacific. The onshore intensification of the KC is found to drive nutrient-rich upwelling in the shelf regions, induce anomalous warming that leads to coastal marine heatwaves, and reduce the ability of the oceans to absorb anthropogenic carbon dioxide. Based on altimeter and in situ observations, we find an onshore acceleration and offshore deceleration of the KC over the past three decades. This intensification is characterized by a spatial mean onshore acceleration (offshore deceleration) of 0.39 (−0.63) cm s⁻¹ per decade. This phenomenon can be attributed to changes in wind stress curl (WSC) and oceanic stratification over the subtropical North Pacific. The weakened WSC decreases the vertical extent of the KC by reducing its transport and contributes to the offshore deceleration, whereas the enhanced stratification drives the uplift of the KC and contributes to the onshore acceleration. Our findings underscore the importance of establishing and maintaining a long-term monitoring network for the zonal variations of the KC in the future to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the associated impacts.

Based on latest estimates (e.g., https://sealevel.nasa.gov), global mean sea level has risen nearly 100 mm since 1993. However, the rate of rise has not been constant in space or time and recent observations (since ∼2008) reveal pronounced regional acceleration in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Here we use model solutions and observational data to identify the physical mechanisms responsible for enhanced rates of coastal sea-level rise in this region. We quantify the effect of offshore subsurface ocean warming on coastal sea-level rise and its relationship to regional hypsometry, the distribution of ocean area with depth. Using an Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) state estimate, we establish that coastal sea-level changes at the 10-year timescale are largely the result of changes in regional ocean mass, reflected in ocean bottom pressure. These coastal bottom pressure changes reflect both net mass flux into the Gulf, as well as internal mass redistribution within the Gulf, which can be understood as an isostatic ocean response to subsurface warming. We test the relationships among coastal sea-level, bottom pressure, and subsurface warming identified in ECCO using observations from satellite gravimetry, altimetry, tide gauges, and Argo floats. Estimates of mass redistribution explain a significant fraction of coastal sea-level trends observed by tide gauges. For instance, at St. Petersburg, Florida, this mass redistribution mechanism accounts for >50% of the coastal sea-level trend observed between 2008 and 2017. This study thus elucidates a physical mechanism whereby coastal sea-level responds to open-ocean subsurface density change.

The Paris Agreement calls for emissions reductions to limit climate change, but how will the carbon cycle change if it is successful? The land and oceans currently absorb roughly half of anthropogenic emissions, but this fraction will decline in the future. The amount of carbon that can be released before climate is mitigated depends on the amount of carbon the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems can absorb. Policy is based on model projections, but observations and theory suggest that climate effects emerging in today's climate will increase and carbon cycle tipping points may be crossed. Warming temperatures, drought, and a slowing growth rate of CO₂ itself will reduce land and ocean sinks and create new sources, making carbon sequestration in forests, soils, and other land and aquatic vegetation more difficult. Observations, data-assimilative models, and prediction systems are needed for managing ongoing long-term changes to land and ocean systems after achieving net-zero emissions.

• International agreements call for stabilizing climate at 1.5° above preindustrial, while the world is already seeing damaging extremes below that.
• If climate is stabilized near the 1.5° target, the driving force for most sinks will slow, while feedbacks from the warmer climate will continue to cause sources.
• Once emissions are reduced to net zero, carbon cycle-climate feedbacks will require observations to support ongoing active management to maintain storage.

Indian Ocean (IO) stratification has important effects on the air-sea interaction, ocean dynamics and ecology. It is, therefore, of significance to investigate the changes in IO stratification. In this study, we use Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) to extract the nonlinear long-term trend in the upper IO stratification quantified by potential energy anomaly. The results show that the strengthening of the stratification is spatially and temporally non-uniform. Specifically, the trend of stratification intensified gradually before 1996, but accelerated rapidly after 1996. Temperature and salinity changes play a crucial role in the fast enhancement of stratification and its regional differences. Temperature variations dominate the stratification trend in ∼90% of the IO area, while the contributions of salinity changes are mainly in the Southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO). Vertically, the rapid enhancement of stratification is caused by the trend of temperature and salt in the upper 400 m. We further perform temperature budget analysis and find that the warming trend in the upper 400 m South of IO is mainly modulated by vertical advection and meridional advection, while the warming in the North of IO is mainly induced by air-sea heat fluxes. Salinity budget analysis shows that ocean advection has played a primary role in modulating SEIO salinity over the past 20 years.

Interannual sea-level variations between the United States (U.S.) Northeast and Southeast Coasts separated by Cape Hatteras are significantly less correlated than those within their respective sectors, but the cause is poorly understood. Here we investigate atmospheric forcing mechanisms that affect the interannual sea-level co-variability between these two sectors using an adjoint reconstruction and decomposition approach in the framework of Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean state estimate. We compare modeled and observed sea-level changes at representative locations in each sector: Nantucket Island, Massachusetts for the Northeast and Charleston, South Carolina for the Southeast. The adjoint reconstruction and decomposition approach used in this work allows for identification and quantification of the causal mechanisms responsible for observed coastal sea-level variability. Coherent sea-level variations in Nantucket and Charleston arise from nearshore wind stress anomalies north of Cape Hatteras and buoyancy forcing, especially from the subpolar North Atlantic, while offshore wind stress anomalies, in contrast, reduce co-variability. Offshore wind stress contributes much more to interannual sea-level variation at Charleston than at Nantucket, causing incoherent sea level variations between the two locations. Buoyancy forcing anomalies south of Charleston, including over the Florida shelf, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea, also reduce co-variability because they induce sea-level responses at Charleston but not Nantucket. However, the relative impact of buoyancy forcing on interannual sea-level co-variability between the two sectors is much smaller than that of offshore wind stress.

This paper describes a framework for identifying dominant atmospheric drivers of ocean variability. The method combines statistics of atmosphere-ocean fluxes with physics from an ocean general circulation model to derive atmospheric patterns optimized to excite variability in a specified ocean quantity of interest. We first derive the method as a weighted principal components analysis and illustrate its capabilities in a toy problem. Next, we apply our analysis to the problem of interannual upper ocean heat content (HC) variability in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) using the adjoint of the MITgcm and atmosphere-ocean fluxes from the ECCOv4-r4 state estimate. An unweighted principal components analysis reveals that North Atlantic heat and momentum fluxes in ECCOv4-r4 have a range of spatiotemporal patterns. By contrast, dynamics-weighted principal components analysis collapses the space of these patterns onto a small subset - principally associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation - that dominates interannual SPG HC variance. By perturbing the ECCOv4-r4 state estimate, we illustrate the pathways along which variability propagates from the atmosphere to the ocean in a nonlinear ocean model. This technique is applicable across a range of problems across Earth System components, including in the absence of a model adjoint.

We quantify the volume transport and watermass transformation rates of the global overturning circulation using the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean version 4 release 4 (ECCOv4r4) reanalysis product. The ECCO solution shows large rates of intercell exchange between the mid-depth and abyssal cells, consistent with other recent inferences. About 10 Sv of North Atlantic deep water enters the abyssal cell in the Southern Ocean and is balanced by a similar amount of apparrent diapycnal upwelling in the Indo-Pacific. However, much of the upwelling in ECCO's deep ocean is not associated with irreversible watermass transformations, as typically assumed in theoretical models. Instead, a dominant portion of the abyssal circulation in ECCO is associated with isopycnal volume tendencies, reflecting a deep ocean in a state of change and a circulation in which transient tendencies play a leading role in the watermass budget. These volume tendencies are particularly prominent in the Indo-Pacific, where ECCO depicts a cooling and densifying deep ocean with relatively little mixing-driven upwelling, in disagreement with recent observations of deep Indo-Pacific warming trends. Although abyssal ocean observations are insufficient to exclude the trends modeled by ECCO, we note that ECCO's parameterized diapycnal mixing in the abyssal ocean is much smaller than observational studies suggest and may lead to an under-representation of Antarctic Bottom Water consumption in the abyssal ocean. Whether or not ECCO's tendencies are realistic, they are a key part of its abyssal circulation and hence need to be taken into consideration when interpreting the ECCO solution.

Climate variability over the Tropical and North Pacific Ocean (TPO and NPO, respectively) modulates marginal sea variability. The South China Sea (SCS), the largest marginal sea in the western NPO, is an outstanding example of a region that responds quickly to climate change. However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the response of the deep SCS to large-scale climate variability. Multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis revealed three prominent modes of interconnected temperature anomaly fluctuations within the TPO and NPO. These coherent modes highlight the interactive dynamics among climate variations and reveal their modulation mechanisms for previously less explored potential temperature variabilities in the deep SCS. On the atmospheric bridge, external forces modify the upper-layer Luzon Strait Transport (LST) by adjusting the Ekman transport and Kuroshio intrusion. For the oceanic pathway, climate variations disturb the deep-layer LST by adjusting the barotropic flows in the upper layer.

Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated Meridional Heat Transport (MHT) can affect climate and weather patterns, regional sea levels, and ecosystems. Direct observations of the AMOC are still limited, particularly in the South Atlantic. This study establishes a cost-effective trans-basin section to estimate for the first time the AMOC and MHT at 22.5°S, using only sustained ocean observations. For this, an optimal mapping method that minimizes the difference between surface in situ dynamic height and satellite altimetry was developed to retrieve monthly temperature and salinity profiles from Argo and XBT data along the 22.5°S section. The mean states, as well as the interannual and seasonal changes of the obtained AMOC and MHT were compared with other products. The mean AMOC and MHT for 22.5°S are 16.3 ± 3.2 Sv and 0.7 ± 0.2 PW, respectively, showing stronger transports during austral fall/winter and weaker in spring. The high-density XBT data available at the western boundary were vital for capturing the highly variable Brazil Current (BC), whose mean and variability was improved compared to other products. At 22.5°S, the North Atlantic Deep Water is divided into two cores that flow along both the western and the eastern boundaries near 2,500 m depth. Our results (a) suggest a greater influence of the western boundary current system on the AMOC variability at 22.5°S, (b) highlight the importance of high-density in situ data for AMOC estimates, and (c) contribute to a better understanding of the AMOC and MHT variability in the South Atlantic.

This study addresses a longstanding issue regarding diatoms, namely, their fast growth. Diatoms, which broadly are phytoplankton with silica frustules, are the world's most productive microorganisms and dominate in polar and upwelling regions.

The lower cell of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is sourced by dense Antarctic Bottom Waters (AABWs), which form and sink around Antarctica and subsequently fill the abyssal ocean. For the MOC to "overturn," these dense waters must upwell via mixing with lighter waters above. Here, we investigate the processes underpinning such mixing, and the resulting water mass transformation, using an observationally forced, high-resolution numerical model of the Drake Passage in the Southern Ocean. In the Drake Passage, the mixing of dense AABW formed in the Weddell Sea with lighter deep waters transported from the Pacific Ocean by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current is catalyzed by energetic flows impinging on rough topography. We find that multiple topographic interaction processes facilitate the mixing of the two water masses, ultimately resulting in the upwelling of waters with neutral density greater than 28.19 kg m⁻³, and the downwelling of the lighter waters above. In particular, we identify the role of sharp density interfaces between AABW and overlying waters and find that the dynamics of the interfaces' interaction with topography can modify many of the processes that generate mixing. Such sharp interfaces between water masses have been observed in several parts of the global ocean, but are unresolved and unrepresented in climate-scale ocean models. We suggest that they are likely to play an important role in abyssal dynamics and mixing, and therefore require further exploration.

Given the success of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission in mapping terrestrial water storage (TWS) since 2002, recent reconstructions of long-term TWS rely on the use of statistical machine learning to apply GRACE-derived information to past decades. Evaluating the interannual accuracy during nonobservational periods is a key challenge. This study develops a comprehensive framework to discuss the interannual accuracy of three different TWS reconstructions during 1981-2019, including (a) global-scale accuracy assessment using GRACE and satellite laser ranging data; (b) regional-scale accuracy testing across various underlying surfaces (i.e., rivers, lakes, and glaciers); and (c) investigation of relevant evidence from other Earth subsystems (i.e., historic climate events, sea level budget, and polar motion). Among the three reconstructions, the one that additionally corrects glacial TWS changes (REC2) detects a breaking point in the 1990s and further closes the interannual sea level budget with an absolute difference reduction to 5.13 mm; the reconstruction that is forced by local meteorological conditions (REC1), accounting for 54% of the GRACE-derived signal energy, underestimates glacial TWS variability but outperforms the other reconstructions in reproducing lake levels, basin-scale water balances, and climate events at the interannual scale, while the others consider 95%-99% of the GRACE-derived signal energy. The relatively high accuracy of REC1 (and REC2) in reflecting interannual changes in nonglacial (and glacial) regions is further confirmed by explaining the χ₂- (and χ₁-) component polar motion. Ten to 20% of the interannual polar motion remains unexplained, indicating room for improvement in interannual TWS reconstruction.

We have assembled 2 851 702 nearly cloud-free cutout images (sized 144 km x 144 km) of sea surface temperature (SST) data from the entire 2012-2020 Level-2 Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) dataset to perform a quantitative comparison to the ocean model output from the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm). Specifically, we evaluate outputs from the LLC4320 (LLC, latitude-longitude-polar cap) 1/48^o global-ocean simulation for a 1-year period starting on 17 November 2011 but otherwise matched in geography and the day of the year to the VIIRS observations. In lieu of simple (e.g., mean, standard deviation) or complex (e.g., power spectrum) statistics, we analyze the cutouts of SST anomalies with an unsupervised probabilistic autoencoder (PAE) trained to learn the distribution of structures in SST anomaly (SSTa) on ~ 10-80 km scales (i.e., submesoscale to mesoscale). A principal finding is that the LLC4320 simulation reproduces, over a large fraction of the ocean, the observed distribution of SSTa patterns well, both globally and regionally. Globally, the medians of the structure distributions match to within 2σ for 65 % of the ocean, despite a modest, latitude-dependent offset. Regionally, the model outputs reproduce mesoscale variations in SSTa patterns revealed by the PAE in the VIIRS data, including subtle features imprinted by variations in bathymetry. We also identify significant differences in the distribution of SSTa patterns in several regions: (1) in an equatorial band equatorward of 15^o; (2) in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), especially in the eastern half of the Indian Ocean; and (3) in the vicinity of the point at which western boundary currents separate from the continental margin. It is clear that region 3 is a result of premature separation in the simulated western boundary currents. The model output in region 2, the southern Indian Ocean, tends to predict more structure than observed, perhaps arising from a misrepresentation of the mixed layer or of energy dissipation and stirring in the simulation. The differences in region 1, the equatorial band, are also likely due to model errors, perhaps arising from the shortness of the simulation or from the lack of high-frequency and/or wavenumber atmospheric forcing. Although we do not yet know the exact causes for these model-data SSTa differences, we expect that this type of comparison will help guide future developments of high-resolution global-ocean simulations.

Observed Antarctic sea ice trends up to 2015 have a distinct regional and seasonal pattern, with a loss during austral summer and autumn in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas, and a year-round increase in the Ross Sea. Global climate models generally failed to reproduce the magnitude of sea ice trends implying that the models miss relevant mechanisms. One possible mechanism is basal meltwater, which is generally not included in the current generation of climate models. Previous work on the effects of meltwater on sea ice has focused on thermodynamic processes. However, local freshening also leads to dynamic changes, affecting ocean currents through geostrophic balance. Using a coupled ocean/sea-ice/ice-shelf model, we demonstrate that basal melting can intensify coastal currents in West Antarctica and the westward transport of sea ice. This change in transport results in sea ice anomalies consistent with observations, and may explain the disparity between climate models and observations.

The Arctic Ocean's Beaufort Gyre (BG) is a wind-driven reservoir of relatively fresh seawater, situated beneath time-mean anticyclonic atmospheric circulation, and is covered by mobile pack ice for most of the year. Liquid freshwater accumulation in and expulsion from this gyre is of critical interest due to its potential to affect the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and due to the importance of freshwater in modulating vertical fluxes of heat, nutrients and carbon in the ocean, and exchanges of heat and moisture with the atmosphere. Here, we investigate the hypothesis that wind-driven sea ice transport into/from the BG region influences the freshwater content of the gyre and its variability. To test this hypothesis, we use the results of a coordinated climate response function experiment with four ice-ocean models, in combination with targeted experiments using a regional setup of the MITgcm, in which we rotate the surface wind forcing vectors (thereby changing the ageostrophic component of these winds). Our results show that, via an effect on the net thermodynamic growth rate, anomalies in sea ice transport into the BG affect liquid freshwater adjustment. Specifically, increased ice import increases freshwater retention in the gyre, whereas ice export decreases freshwater in the gyre. Our results demonstrate that uncertainty in the ageostrophic component of surface winds, and in the dynamic sea ice response to these winds, has important implications for ice thermodynamics and freshwater. This sensitivity may explain some of the observed inter-model spread in simulations of Beaufort Gyre freshwater and its adjustment in response to wind forcing.

Melt rates of West Antarctic ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea track large decadal variations in the volume of warm water at their outlets. This variability is generally attributed to wind-driven variations in warm water transport toward ice shelves. Inspired by conceptual representations of the global overturning circulation, we introduce a simple model for the evolution of the thermocline, which caps the warm water layer at the ice-shelf front. This model demonstrates that interannual variations in coastal polynya buoyancy forcing can generate large decadal-scale thermocline depth variations, even when the supply of warm water from the shelf-break is fixed. The modeled variability involves transitions between bistable high and low melt regimes, enabled by feedbacks between basal melt rates and ice front stratification strength. Our simple model captures observed variations in near-coast thermocline depth and stratification strength, and poses an alternative mechanism for warm water volume changes to wind-driven theories.

Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) forms north of the Subantarctic Front, in regions of deep winter mixed layers, and is important to the absorption and storage of anthropogenic CO₂ and heat. Two SAMW pools exist in the Pacific, a lighter Central mode (CPSAMW), and a denser Southeast mode (SEPSAMW). Both have experienced significant interannual variability in thickness and properties in recent years. We compute mixed layer temperature and salinity budgets for the two SAMW formation regions, to determine the relative contribution of processes driving variability in the properties of mixed layers that subduct to form SAMW. The dominant drivers of temperature and salinity variability are shown to be surface fluxes, horizontal advection, and entrainment of deeper water. Salt advection into each SAMW formation region is found to be strongly correlated with changes in sea ice area in the northern Ross Sea, with lags of up to 2 years. Further correlation is found between meridional salt advection in the southeast Pacific formation regions, and sea ice area in the northern Amundsen/Bellingshausen seas, suggesting that freshwater derived from sea ice melt reaches the SEPSAMW formation region within 6 months. In 2016, strong advective freshening of the SEPSAMW formation region, linked to increased winter sea ice in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen seas, led to anomalously fresh mixed layers. However, a regime change in Antarctic sea ice in 2016 resulted in a subsequent lack of the usual advective freshening in the SEPSAMW formation region, driving increased salinity of the mixed layer the following year.

The time series of downward particle flux at 3000 m at the Porcupine Abyssal Plain Sustained Observatory (PAP-SO) in the Northeast Atlantic is presented for the period 1989 to 2018. This flux can be considered to be sequestered for more than 100 years. Measured levels of organic carbon sequestration (average 1.88 gm⁻² y⁻¹ ) are higher on average at this location than at the six other time series locations in the Atlantic. Interannual variability is also greater than at the other locations (organic carbon flux coefficient of variation = 73%). We find that previously hypothesised drivers of 3,000 m flux, such as net primary production (NPP) and previous-winter mixing are not good predictors of this sequestration flux. In contrast, the composition of the upper ocean biological community, specifically the protozoan Rhizaria (including the Foraminifera and Radiolaria) exhibit a close relationship to sequestration flux. These species become particularly abundant following enhanced upper ocean temperatures in June leading to pulses of this material reaching 3,000 m depth in the late summer. In some years, the organic carbon flux pulses following Rhizaria blooms were responsible for substantial increases in carbon sequestration and we propose that the Rhizaria are one of the major vehicles by which material is transported over a very large depth range (3,000 m) and hence sequestered for climatically relevant time periods. We propose that they sink fast and are degraded little during their transport to depth. In terms of atmospheric CO₂ uptake by the oceans, the Radiolaria and Phaeodaria are likely to have the greatest influence. Foraminifera will also exert an influence in spite of the fact that the generation of their calcite tests enhances upper ocean CO₂ concentration and hence reduces uptake from the atmosphere.

Iceberg A-68 separated from the Larsen C Ice Shelf in July 2017 and the impact of this event on the local ocean circulation has yet to be assessed. Here, we conduct numerical simulations of ocean dynamics near and below the ice shelf pre- and post-calving. Results agree with in situ and remote observations of the area as they indicate that basal melt is primarily controlled by wintertime sea-ice formation, which in turn produces High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW). After the calving event, we simulate a 50% increase in HSSW intrusion under the ice shelf, enhancing ocean heat delivery by 30%. This results in doubling of the melt rate under Gipps Ice Rise, suggesting a positive feedback for further retreat that could destabilize the Larsen C Ice Shelf. Assessing the impact of ice-front retreat on the heat delivery under the ice is crucial to better understand ice-shelf dynamics in a warming environment.

Climate change is affecting a wide range of global systems, with polar ecosystems experiencing the most rapid change. Although climate impacts affect lower-trophic-level and short-lived species most directly, it is less clear how long-lived and mobile species will respond to rapid polar warming because they may have the short-term ability to accommodate ecological disruptions while adapting to new conditions. We found that the population dynamics of an iconic and highly mobile polar-associated species are tightly coupled to Arctic prey availability and access to feeding areas. When low prey biomass coincided with high ice cover, gray whales experienced major mortality events, each reducing the population by 15 to 25%. This suggests that even mobile, long-lived species are sensitive to dynamic and changing conditions as the Arctic warms.

This contribution to the RECCAP2 (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) assessment analyzes the processes that determine the global ocean carbon sink, and its trends and variability over the period 1985-2018, using a combination of models and observation-based products. The mean sea-air CO₂ flux from 1985 to 2018 is −1.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr⁻¹ based on an ensemble of reconstructions of the history of sea surface pCO₂ (pCO₂ products). Models indicate that the dominant component of this flux is the net oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ , which is estimated at −2.1 ± 0.3 PgC yr⁻¹ by an ensemble of ocean biogeochemical models, and −2.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr⁻¹ by two ocean circulation inverse models. The ocean also degasses about 0.65 ± 0.3 PgC yr⁻¹ of terrestrially derived CO₂ , but this process is not fully resolved by any of the models used here. From 2001 to 2018, the pCO₂ products reconstruct a trend in the ocean carbon sink of −0.61 ± 0.12 PgC yr⁻¹  decade⁻¹ , while biogeochemical models and inverse models diagnose an anthropogenic CO₂ -driven trend of −0.34 ± 0.06 and −0.41 ± 0.03 PgC yr⁻¹  decade⁻¹, respectively. This implies a climate-forced acceleration of the ocean carbon sink in recent decades, but there are still large uncertainties on the magnitude and cause of this trend. The interannual to decadal variability of the global carbon sink is mainly driven by climate variability, with the climate-driven variability exceeding the CO₂-forced variability by 2-3 times. These results suggest that anthropogenic CO₂ dominates the ocean CO₂ sink, while climate-driven variability is potentially large but highly uncertain and not consistently captured across different methods.

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite is expected to observe sea surface height (SSH) down to scales approaching ∼15 km, revealing submesoscale patterns that have never before been observed on global scales. Features at these soon-to-be-observed scales, however, are expected to be significantly influenced by internal gravity waves, fronts, and other ageostrophic processes, presenting a serious challenge for estimating surface velocities from SWOT observations. Here we show that a data-driven approach can be used to estimate the surface flow, particularly the kinematic signatures of smaller scale flows, from SSH observations, and that it performs significantly better than using the geostrophic relationship. We use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) trained on submesoscale-permitting high-resolution simulations to test the possibility of reconstructing surface vorticity, strain, and divergence from snapshots of SSH. By evaluating success using pointwise accuracy and vorticity-strain-divergence joint distributions, we show that the CNN works well when inertial gravity wave amplitudes are relatively weak. When the wave amplitudes are strong, reconstructions of vorticity and strain are less accurate; however, we find that the CNN naturally filters the wave-divergence, making divergence a surprisingly reliable field to reconstruct. We also show that when applied to realistic simulations, a CNN model pretrained with simpler simulation data performs well, indicating a possible path forward for estimating real flow statistics with limited observations.

The internal-wave (IW) continuum of a regional ocean model is studied in terms of the vertical spectral kinetic-energy (KE) fluxes and transfers at high vertical wavenumbers. Previous work has shown that this model permits a partial representation of the IW cascade. In this work, vertical spectral KE flux is decomposed into catalyst, source, and destination vertical modes and frequency bands of nonlinear scattering, a framework that allows for the discernment of different types of nonlinear interactions involving both waves and eddies. Energy transfer within the supertidal IW continuum is found to be strongly dependent on resolution. Specifically, at a horizontal grid spacing of 1/48°, most KE in the supertidal continuum arrives there from lower frequency modes through a single nonlinear interaction, while at 1/384° and with sufficient vertical resolution KE transfers within the supertidal IW continuum are comparable in size to KE transfer from lower-frequency modes. Additionally, comparisons are made with existing theoretical and observational work on energy pathways in the IW continuum. Induced diffusion (ID) is found to be associated with a weak forward frequency transfer within the supertidal IW continuum. ID is also limited to the highest vertical wavenumbers and is more sensitive to resolution relative to spectrally local interactions (LI). At the same time, ID-like processes involving high vertical-wavenumber near-inertial and tidal waves as well as low-vertical-wavenumber eddy fields are substantial, suggesting that the processes giving rise to a Garrett-Munk-like spectra in the present numerical simulation and perhaps the real ocean may be more varied than in idealized or wave-only frameworks.

Deep vertical velocity is a critical factor causing deficiencies in Sverdrup theory. However, few studies have focused on its influence in the low-latitude western Pacific. Through multiple analyses of observational, reanalysis, and simulation data, this study explored the contribution of deep non-zero vertical velocity to the Sverdrup transport inaccuracy in the low-latitude North Pacific. The vertical velocities inducing relatively small non-Sverdrup transport exist within 1500-2500 m, which exhibit similar patterns with opposite values to the south and north of 13°N. The zonally integrated meridional volume transport associated with these vertical velocities displays non-negligible dipolar zonal bands west of approximately 150°W. The positive and negative transport bands, centered at 11°N and 17°N, can reach an amplitude of approximately 8.0 Sv when integrated from the eastern boundary to 140°E. On average, such integrated meridional transport makes up roughly half of the prominent Sverdrup transport discrepancies in the central-western Pacific. Further investigation indicated that the spatial pattern of these vertical velocities is modulated by ocean topography and deep southward currents. Moreover, a near-global test suggested that the meridional non-Sverdrup transport related to deep vertical velocity is widespread and undergoes remarkable multidecadal variation. This study reveals the disruptive role of deep vertical velocity in disturbing the Sverdrup balance and emphasizes the consideration of its long-term variation when diagnosing wind-driven circulation changes using Sverdrup theory.

Wind power input to near-inertial motions is an important energy source for generating diapycnal mixing in the ocean. However, the distribution and long-term trend of this input over the Southern Ocean have yet to be quantified. In this study, we investigate the near-inertial wind power input (WPI _i ) to the Southern Ocean using a global eddy-permitting coupled ocean-sea ice model forced by a high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis product. Our results reveal a zonally asymmetric distribution of WPI _i in the Southern Ocean, with the strongest input in the South Indian Ocean and the weakest in the South Pacific. The integrated WPI _i between 30°S and 60°S exhibits a significant positive trend over the past four decades due to the intensification of mesoscale weather systems. The surface mixed-layer depth is found to modulate the spatial pattern and trend of WPI _i by altering the surface near-inertial currents.

Abstract. We investigate ocean dynamics at different scales in the Agulhas Current system, a region of important interocean exchange of heat and energy. While ocean observations and some of the most advanced climate models capture the larger mesoscale dynamics (> 100 km), the smaller-scale fronts and eddies are underrepresented. The recently launched NASA-CNES Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) wide-swath altimeter mission observes the smaller ocean geostrophic scales down to 15 km in wavelength globally. Here we will analyse different eddy diagnostics in the Agulhas Current region and quantify the contributions from the larger mesoscales observable today and the smaller scales to be observed with SWOT. Surface geostrophic diagnostics of eddy kinetic energy, strain, and energy cascades are estimated from modelled sea surface height (SSH) fields of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) latitude-longitude polar cap (LLC4320) simulation subsampled at 1/10?. In this region, the smaller scales (<150 km) have a strong signature on the horizontal geostrophic strain rate and for all eddy diagnostics in the Western Boundary Current and along the meandering Agulhas Extension. We investigate the horizontal cascade of energy using a coarse-graining technique, and we observe that the wavelength range where the inverse cascade occurs is biased towards larger mesoscale wavelengths with today's altimetric sampling. We also calculate the projected sampling of the eddy diagnostics under the SWOT swaths built with the NASA-CNES simulator to include the satellite position and realistic noise. For the swaths, a neural network noise mitigation method is implemented to reduce the residual SWOT random error before calculating eddy diagnostics. In terms of SSH, observable wavelengths of 15 to 20 km are retrieved after neural network noise mitigation, as opposed to wavelengths larger than 40 km before the noise reduction.

Due to limited observational coverage, monitoring the warming of the global ocean, especially the deep ocean, remains a challenging sampling problem. Seismic ocean thermometry (SOT) complements existing point measurements by inferring large-scale averaged ocean temperature changes using the sound waves generated by submarine earthquakes, called T waves. We demonstrate here that Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) hydrophones can record T waves with a higher signal-to-noise ratio compared to a previously used land-based T-wave station. This allows us to use small earthquakes (magnitude <4.0), which occur much more frequently than large events, dramatically improving the resulting temporal resolution of SOT. We also find that the travel time changes of T waves at the land-based T -wave station and the CTBTO hydrophone show small but systematic differences, although the two stations are only about 20 km apart. We attribute this feature to their different acoustic mode components sampling different parts of the ocean. Applying SOT to two CTBTO hydrophones in the East Indian Ocean reveals signals from decadal warming, seasonal variations, and mesoscale eddies, some of which are missing or underestimated in previously available temperature reconstructions. This application demonstrates the great advantage of hydrophone stations for global SOT, especially in regions with a low seismicity level.

Arguably, the most conspicuous evidence for anthropogenic climate change lies in the Arctic Ocean. For example, the summer-time Arctic sea ice extent has declined over the last 40 years and the Arctic Ocean freshwater storage has increased over the last 30 years. Coupled climate models project that this extra freshwater will pass Greenland to enter the sub-polar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA) in the coming decades. Coupled climate models also project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the twenty-first century, associated with SPNA buoyancy increases. Yet, it remains unclear when the Arctic anthropogenic freshening signal will be detected in the SPNA, or what form the signal will take. Therefore, this article reviews and synthesizes the state of knowledge on Arctic Ocean and SPNA salinity variations and their causes. This article focuses on the export processes in data-constrained ocean circulation model hindcasts. One challenge is to quantify and understand the relative importance of different competing processes. This article also discusses the prospects to detect the emergence of Arctic anthropogenic freshening and the likely impacts on the AMOC. For this issue, the challenge is to distinguish anthropogenic signals from natural variability.

Within the last century, the global sea level has risen between 16 and 21 cm and will likely accelerate into the future. Projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show the global mean sea level (GMSL) rise may increase to up to 1 m (1000 mm) by 2100. The primary cause of the sea level rise can be attributed to climate change through the thermal expansion of seawater and the recession of glaciers from melting. Because of the complexity of the climate and environmental systems, it is very difficult to accurately predict the increase in sea level. The latest estimate of GMSL rise is about 3 mm/year, but as GMSL is a global measure, it may not represent local sea level changes. It is essential to obtain tailored estimates of sea level rise in coastline Florida, as the state is strongly impacted by the global sea level rise. The goal of this study is to model the sea level in coastal Florida using climate factors. Hence, water temperature, water salinity, sea surface height anomalies (SSHA), and El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) 3.4 index were considered to predict coastal Florida sea level. The sea level changes across coastal Florida were modeled using both multiple regression as a broadly used parametric model and the generalized additive model (GAM), which is a nonparametric method. The local rates and variances of sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) were analyzed and compared to regional and global measurements. The identified optimal model to explain and predict sea level was a GAM with the year, global and regional (adjacent basins) SSHA, local water temperature and salinity, and ENSO as predictors. All predictors including global SSHA, regional SSHA, water temperature, water salinity, ENSO, and the year were identified to have a positive impact on the sea level and can help to explain the variations in the sea level in coastal Florida. Particularly, the global and regional SSHA and the year are important factors to predict sea level changes.

Over recent decades, the Bering Sea has experienced oceanic and atmospheric climate extremes, including record warm ocean temperature anomalies and marine heatwaves (MHWs), and increasingly variable air-sea heat fluxes. In this work, we assess the relative roles of surface forcing and ocean dynamical processes on mixed layer temperature (MLT) tendency by computing a closed mixed layer heat budget using the NASA/JPL Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) Ocean State and Sea Ice Estimate. We show that surface forcing drives the majority of MLT tendency in the spring and fall, and remains dominant to a lesser degree in winter and summer. Surface forcing anomalies are the dominant driver of monthly mixed layer temperature tendency anomalies (MLTa), driving an average of 72% of the MLTa over the ECCO record length (1992-2017). The surface turbulent heat flux (latent plus sensible) accounts for most of the surface heat flux anomalies in January-April and September-December, and the net radiative flux (net longwave plus net shortwave) dominates the surface heat flux anomalies in May-August. Our results suggest that atmospheric variability plays a significant role in Bering Sea ocean temperature anomalies through most of the year. Furthermore, they indicate a recent increase in ocean warming surface forcing anomalies, beginning in 2010.

The Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) flows eastward across the Pacific at the equator in the thermocline. Its variability is related to El Niño. Moored acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) measurements recorded at 4 widely-separated sites along the equator in the EUC were compared to currents generated by version 4 release 4 of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCOv4r4) global model-data synthesis product. We are interested to learn how well ECCOv4r4 currents could complement sparse in situ current measurements. ADCP measurements were not assimilated in ECCOv4r4. Comparisons occurred at 5-m depth intervals at 165°E, 170°W, 140°W, and 110°W over time intervals of 10-14 years from 1995-2010. Hourly values of ECCOv4r4 and ADCP EUC core speeds were strongly correlated; similar for the EUC transport per unit width (TPUW). Correlations were substantially weaker at 110°W. Although we expected means and standard deviations of ECCOv4r4 currents to be smaller than ADCP values because of ECCOv4r4's grid representation error, the large differences were unforeseen. The appearance of ECCOv4r4 diurnal-period current oscillations was surprising. As the EUC moved eastward from 170°W to 140°W, the ECCOv4r4 TPUW exhibited a much smaller increase compared to the ADCP TPUW. A consequence of smaller ECCOv4r4 EUC core speeds was significantly fewer instances of gradient Richardson number (Ri) less than ¼ above and below the depth of the core speed compared to Ri computed with ADCP observations. We present linear regression analyses to use monthly-mean ECCOv4r4 EUC core speeds and TPUWs as proxies for ADCP measurements.

Seasonal change of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ∼ O₂  + CO₂) is a tracer for air-sea O₂ flux with little sensitivity to the terrestrial exchange of O₂ and CO₂. In this study, we present the tropospheric distribution and inventory of APO in each hemisphere with seasonal resolution, using O₂ and CO₂ measurements from discrete airborne campaigns between 2009 and 2018. The airborne data are represented on a mass-weighted isentropic coordinate (M_θe) as an alternative to latitude, which reduces the noise from synoptic variability in the APO cycles. We find a larger seasonal amplitude of APO inventory in the Southern Hemisphere relative to the Northern Hemisphere, and a larger amplitude in high latitudes (low M _θe) relative to low latitudes (high M_θe) within each hemisphere. With a box model, we invert the seasonal changes in APO inventory to yield estimates of air-sea flux cycles at the hemispheric scale. We found a larger seasonal net outgassing of APO in the Southern Hemisphere (518 ± 52.6 Tmol) than in the Northern Hemisphere (342 ± 52.1 Tmol). Differences in APO phasing and amplitude between the hemispheres suggest distinct physical and biogeochemical mechanisms driving the air-sea O₂ fluxes, such as fall outgassing of photosynthetic O₂ in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly associated with the formation of the seasonal subsurface shallow oxygen maximum. We compare our estimates with four model- and observation-based products, identifying key limitations in these products or in the tools used to create them.

Two major trans-basin mooring arrays, the Rapid Climate Change-Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array (RAPID) at 26.5°N since 2004 and the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) situated at 53°-60°N since 2014, have been continuously monitoring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This study explores the connectivity of AMOC across these two mooring lines from a novel adiabatic perspective utilizing a model-based data set. The findings unveil significant in-phase connections facilitated by the adiabatic basinwide redistribution of water between the two lines on a monthly timescale. This adiabatic mode is a possible cause for the observed subpolar AMOC seasonality by OSNAP. Furthermore, the Labrador Sea was identified as a hotspot for adiabatic forcing of the overturning circulations, primarily attributed to its dynamic isopycnal movements.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the global climate but is not simulated consistently across models or model resolutions. Here, we use a hierarchy of the global coupled model HadGEM3-GC3.1, with ocean resolutions of 1°, ¼°, and 1/12°, to evaluate the subpolar AMOC and its sensitivity to horizontal resolution. In line with observations, the models show that the mean overturning and surface forced water mass transformation (SFWMT) are concentrated in the eastern subpolar gyre rather than in the Labrador Sea. However, the magnitude of the overturning along the OSNAP line at medium and high resolutions is 25% and 40% larger than in the observations, respectively. This disagreement in overturning strength is noted for both OSNAP East and OSNAP West, and is mainly due to anomalously large SFWMT rather than anomalously large interior mixing or overflow transport from the Nordic Seas. Over the Labrador Sea, the intensification of SFWMT with resolution is explained by a combination of two main biases. Anomalously warm surface water enhances heat loss and reduces the extension of marginal sea ice, which increases the surface density flux over the boundary of the basin. A bias in salinity leads to anomalously dense surface water that shifts the outcropping area of the AMOC isopycnal and results in intense dense water formation along the boundary of the basin at medium and high resolutions. Thus, our analysis sheds light on a range of model biases responsible for large overturning over the Labrador Sea in climate models.

We assess the Southern Ocean CO₂ uptake (1985-2018) using data sets gathered in the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project Phase 2. The Southern Ocean acted as a sink for CO₂ with close agreement between simulation results from global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs, 0.75 ± 0.28 PgC yr⁻¹ ) and pCO₂ -observation-based products (0.73 ± 0.07 PgC yr⁻¹ ). This sink is only half that reported by RECCAP1 for the same region and timeframe. The present-day net uptake is to first order a response to rising atmospheric CO₂ , driving large amounts of anthropogenic CO₂ (C_ant ) into the ocean, thereby overcompensating the loss of natural CO₂ to the atmosphere. An apparent knowledge gap is the increase of the sink since 2000, with pCO₂ -products suggesting a growth that is more than twice as strong and uncertain as that of GOBMs (0.26 ± 0.06 and 0.11 ± 0.03 Pg C yr⁻¹  decade⁻¹ , respectively). This is despite nearly identical pCO₂ trends in GOBMs and pCO₂ -products when both products are compared only at the locations where pCO₂ was measured. Seasonal analyses revealed agreement in driving processes in winter with uncertainty in the magnitude of outgassing, whereas discrepancies are more fundamental in summer, when GOBMs exhibit difficulties in simulating the effects of the non-thermal processes of biology and mixing/circulation. Ocean interior accumulation of C_ant points to an underestimate of C_ant uptake and storage in GOBMs. Future work needs to link surface fluxes and interior ocean transport, build long overdue systematic observation networks and push toward better process understanding of drivers of the carbon cycle.

Ice shelf basal melting is the primary mechanism driving mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, yet it is unknown how the localized melt enhancement from subglacial discharge will affect future Antarctic glacial retreat. We develop a parameterization of ice shelf basal melt that accounts for both ocean and subglacial discharge forcing and apply it in future projections of Denman and Scott Glaciers, East Antarctica, through 2300. In forward simulations, subglacial discharge accelerates the onset of retreat of these systems into the deepest continental trench on Earth by 25 years. During this retreat, Denman Glacier alone contributes 0.33 millimeters per year to global sea level rise, comparable to half of the contemporary sea level contribution of the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet. Our results stress the importance of resolving complex interactions between the ice, ocean, and subglacial environments in future Antarctic Ice Sheet projections.

Marine heatwaves are extreme warm water events that can cause devastating impacts on ecosystems and have complex socio-economic ramifications. Surface signals and drivers of marine heatwaves have been extensively investigated based on satellite observations, whereas their vertical structure in the global ocean remains unclear. In this study, we identify marine heatwave events in the epipelagic zone (0-200 m) using a four-dimensional spatio-temporal framework based on three ocean reanalysis datasets. We find that only about half of the marine heatwave events have continuous surface signals during their life cycles and around one-third always reside in the subsurface ocean without any imprint on sea surface temperature. The annual number of these subsurface marine heatwave events shows a significant increase in response to subsurface mean-state warming during the past three decades. Our findings reveal the limitation of identifying marine heatwaves solely based on the sea surface temperature and underscore the necessity of subsurface observations for monitoring marine heatwaves.

As a contribution to the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes phase 2 (RECCAP2) project, we present synthesized estimates of Arctic Ocean sea-air CO₂ fluxes and their uncertainties from surface ocean pCO₂ -observation products, ocean biogeochemical hindcast and data assimilation models, and atmospheric inversions. For the period of 1985-2018, the Arctic Ocean was a net sink of CO₂ of 116 ± 4 TgC yr⁻¹ in the pCO₂ products, 92 ± 30 TgC yr⁻¹ in the models, and 91 ± 21 TgC yr⁻¹ in the atmospheric inversions. The CO₂ uptake peaks in late summer and early autumn, and is low in winter when sea ice inhibits sea-air fluxes. The long-term mean CO₂ uptake in the Arctic Ocean is primarily caused by steady-state fluxes of natural carbon (70% ± 15%), and enhanced by the atmospheric CO₂ increase (19% ± 5%) and climate change (11% ± 18%). The annual mean CO₂ uptake increased from 1985 to 2018 at a rate of 31 ± 13 TgC yr⁻¹  dec⁻¹ in the pCO₂ products, 10 ± 4 TgC yr⁻¹  dec ⁻¹ in the models, and 32 ± 16 TgC yr⁻¹  dec⁻¹ in the atmospheric inversions. Moreover, 77% ± 38% of the trend in the net CO₂ uptake over time is caused by climate change, primarily due to rapid sea ice loss in recent years. Furthermore, true uncertainties may be larger than the given ensemble standard deviations due to common structural biases across all individual estimates.

The North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and its variability are examined in terms of the overturning in density space and diapycnal water mass transformation. The magnitude of the mean overturning is similar to the surface water mass transformation, but the density and properties of these waters are modified by diapycnal mixing. Surface waters are progressively densified while circulating cyclonically around the subpolar gyre, with the densest waters and deepest convection occurring in the Labrador Sea and Nordic Seas. The eddy-driven interaction between the convective interior and boundary currents is a key to the export of dense waters from marginal seas. Due to the multitude of pathways of dense waters within the subpolar gyre, as well as mixing with older waters, waters exiting the subpolar gyre have a wide range of ages, with a mean age on the order of a decade. As a result, interannual changes in water mass transformation are mostly balanced locally and do not result in changes in export to the subtropics. Only persistent changes in water mass transformation result in changes in export to the subtropics. The dilution of signals from upstream water mass transformation suggests that variability in export of dense waters to the subtropics may be controlled by other processes, including interaction of dense waters with the energetic upper ocean.

Abstract. Mercury (Hg) is a global persistent contaminant. Modeling studies are useful means of synthesizing a current understanding of the Hg cycle. Previous studies mainly use coarse-resolution models, which makes it impossible to analyze the role of turbulence in the Hg cycle and inaccurately describes the transport of kinetic energy. Furthermore, all of them are coupled with offline biogeochemistry, and therefore they cannot respond to short-term variability in oceanic Hg concentration. In our approach, we utilize a high-resolution ocean model (MITgcm-ECCO2, referred to as "high-resolution-MITgcm") coupled with the concurrent simulation of biogeochemistry processes from the Darwin Project (referred to as "online"). This integration enables us to comprehensively simulate the global biogeochemical cycle of Hg with a horizontal resolution of 1/5°. The finer portrayal of surface Hg concentrations in estuarine and coastal areas, strong western boundary flow and upwelling areas, and concentration diffusion as vortex shapes demonstrate the effects of turbulence that are neglected in previous models. Ecological events such as algal blooms can cause a sudden enhancement of phytoplankton biomass and chlorophyll concentrations, which can also result in a dramatic change in particle-bound mercury (Hg_aq^P ) sinking flux simultaneously in our simulation. In the global estuary region, including riverine Hg input in the high-resolution model allows us to reveal the outward spread of Hg in an eddy shape driven by fine-scale ocean currents. With faster current velocities and diffusion rates, our model captures the transport and mixing of Hg from river discharge in a more accurate and detailed way and improves our understanding of Hg cycle in the ocean.

Subsurface chlorophyll maximum (SCM) layers contribute considerably to the integrated biomass of the water column and can be strongly modulated by mesoscale eddies that are ubiquitous in the global ocean. The mechanisms of eddy-induced surface chlorophyll concentration have been extensively examined in the South China Sea (SCS). However, the potential impact of mesoscale eddies on SCM layers remains unclear. We examined the influence of mesoscale eddies on the depth, thickness and magnitude of SCM layers in the SCS using output from an eddy-permitting biological-physical coupled model over a 22-year period. Our study shows that nutrient distribution is largely driven by eddy dynamics, with cyclonic eddies enhancing the supply of inorganic nutrients in the upper layers by uplifting the thermocline, and downward displacement of the thermocline in anticyclonic eddies, reducing the nutrient supply into the euphotic zone from the depth. We found that anticyclonic (cyclonic) eddies are responsible for increased (decreased) SCM depth and decreased (increased) SCM magnitude; SCM thickness decreased in cyclonic eddies but slightly increased in anticyclonic eddies. The effects of mesoscale eddies depend on eddy amplitude. Maximal anomalies in depth, thickness and magnitude always occur near the center of eddies. Phytoplankton community structure at SCM layers is also affected by eddies, with more diatoms in cyclonic eddies and more coccolithophores in anticyclonic eddies. Our study will advance our understanding of mesoscale physical-biogeochemical interactions.

Surface ocean temperature and velocity anomalies at meso- and sub-meso-scales induce wind stress anomalies. These wind-front interactions, referred to as thermal (TFB) and current (CFB) feedbacks, respectively, have been studied in isolation at mesoscale, yet they have rarely been considered in tandem. Here, we assess the combined influence of TFB and CFB and their relative impact on surface wind stress derivatives. Analyses are based on output from two regions of the Southern Ocean in a coupled simulation with local ocean resolution of 2 km. Considering both TFB and CFB shows regimes of interference, which remain mostly linear down to the simulation resolution. The jointly-generated wind stress curl anomalies approach 10⁻⁵  Nm⁻³ , ∼20 times stronger than at mesoscale. The synergy of both feedbacks improves the ability to reconstruct wind stress curl magnitude and structure from both surface vorticity and SST gradients by 12%-37% on average, compared with using either feedback alone.

Near Inertial Oscillations (NIOs) are ocean oscillations forced by intermittent winds. They are most energetic at mid-latitudes, particularly in regions with atmospheric storm tracks. Wind-driven, large-scale NIOs are quickly scattered by ocean mesoscale eddies (with sizes ranging from 100 to 400 km), causing a significant portion of the NIO energy to propagate into the subsurface ocean interior. This kinetic energy pathway illustrates that the wind energy input to NIO is critical for maintaining deep ocean stratification and thus closing the total energy budget, as emphasised by numerous modelling studies. However, this wind energy input to NIO remains poorly observed on a global scale. A remote sensing approach that observes winds and ocean currents co-located in time and space with high resolution is necessary to capture the intermittent air-sea coupling. The current satellite observations do not meet these requirements. This study assesses the potential of a new satellite mission concept, Ocean DYnamics and Surface Exchange with the Atmosphere (OSYSEA), to recover wind-forced NIOs from co-located winds and currents. To do this, we use an Observation System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) based on hourly observations of ocean surface currents and surface winds from five surface moorings covering latitudes from 15° to 50°. ODYSEA wind and current observations are expected to have a spatial resolution of 10 km with about a 12 h sampling frequency in mid-latitudes. Results show that NIOs can be recovered with high accuracy using the ODYSEA spatial and temporal resolution, but only if observations are made over a wide area of 1800 km. A narrower swath (1000 km) may lead to significant aliasing.

Recent simulations suggest that submesoscale motions with scales smaller than 30 km and frequencies greater than 1 day⁻¹ drive upward vertical heat transport. These simulations have prompted us to revisit the mechanisms that explain high-frequency (HF) vertical heat fluxes (VHFs) within the surface mixed layer (ML). Here, an idealized numerical simulation of a re-entrant channel flow with an unbalanced submesoscale thermal front is used to analyze the impact of surface cooling on HF VHFs. Two types of simulations are analyzed: forced and unforced. The VHFs cospectrum analysis shows that surface diurnal cooling increases VHFs, reaching frequencies larger than 1 day⁻¹ . However, the fastest-growing length scale of ML instabilities limits the extension of positive VHFs toward fine scales. Symmetric and gravitational instabilities are the main conduits producing ageostrophic HF and small-scale structures, which in turn enhance upward VHFs across the diurnal frequency. A comparison between forced-idealized simulations with the K-profile parameterization scheme and a realistic regional simulation in the frequency-wavenumber space, reveals that the two simulation types reproduce similar VHFs near the diurnal frequency. However, the realistic simulation displays higher VHFs than the forced-idealized simulation. This study emphasizes that surface diurnal cooling significantly impacts HF VHFs. However, this impact is not sufficient to reach the HF VHFs estimated in realistic submesoscale-permitting and tidal-resolving simulations.

Because regional sea-level rise can threaten coastal communities, understanding and quantifying the underlying process contributing to reginal sea-level budget are essential. Here, we assessed whether the regional sea-level rise on the northwestern Pacific marginal seas can be closed with a combination of observations and ocean reanalyses over 1993-2017, as well as with independent observations from in situ profiles including Argo floats and satellite gravity measurements since 2003. The assessment represents that the major contributions come from the land ice melt and sterodynamic components, while the spatial pattern and interannual variability are dominated by sterodynamic effect. The observation-based estimate further shows that along continental shelves, sterodynamic sea-level changes are substantially induced by ocean mass redistribution due to changes in ocean circulation. This result highlights the ocean mass change between the deep ocean and shallow marginal seas, which plays a role in driving regional sea-level rise and variability.

As they rim the basin from the southern tip of Greenland to the southern Labrador coast, the waters in the Labrador Sea boundary current undergo a significant transformation in salinity and temperature, but much less so in density. Motivated by these observations, a previously developed simple three-layer model is adapted to understand the processes responsible for this density-compensated overturning in the Labrador Sea. From our model simulations, we find that the density-compensating water mass transformation in the boundary current can be largely attributed to the combined effect of 1) direct atmospheric cooling of the relatively warm boundary current and 2) freshening due to mixing with the shallower and fresh waters derived from Greenland meltwater discharge and Arctic Ocean inflow. Freshening of the boundary current waters due to the excess of precipitation over evaporation in the basin has an important, but less impactful role in the density compensation. Studies examining the sensitivity of the density compensation to the freshwater entry location reveal a larger impact when the freshwater enters the boundary current on the Greenland side of the basin, compared to the Labrador side. These results yield insights into how increasing meltwater in the subpolar North Atlantic will affect the overturning.

Abstract. Global biogeochemical ocean models are invaluable tools to examine how physical, chemical, and biological processes interact in the ocean. Satellite-derived ocean color properties, on the other hand, provide observations of the surface ocean, with unprecedented coverage and resolution. Advances in our understanding of marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry are strengthened by the combined use of these resources, together with sparse in situ data. Recent modeling advances allow the simulation of the spectral properties of phytoplankton and remote sensing reflectances, bringing model outputs closer to the kind of data that ocean color satellites can provide. However, comparisons between model outputs and analogous satellite products (e.g., chlorophyll a) remain problematic. Most evaluations are based on point-by-point comparisons in space and time, where spuriously large errors can occur from small spatial and temporal mismatches, whereas global statistics provide no information on how well a model resolves processes at regional scales. Here, we employ a unique suite of methodologies, the Probability Density Functions to Evaluate Models (PDFEM), which generate a robust comparison of these resources. The probability density functions of physical and biological properties of Longhurst's provinces are compared to evaluate how well a model resolves related processes. Differences in the distributions of chlorophyll a concentration (mg m⁻³) provide information on matches and mismatches between models and observations. In particular, mismatches help isolate regional sources of discrepancy, which can lead to improving both simulations and satellite algorithms. Furthermore, the use of radiative transfer in the model to mimic remotely sensed products facilitates model-observation comparisons of optical properties of the ocean.

The system of oceanic flows constituting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) moves heat and other properties to the subpolar North Atlantic, controlling regional climate, weather, sea levels, and ecosystems. Climate models suggest a potential AMOC slowdown towards the end of this century due to anthropogenic forcing, accelerating coastal sea level rise along the western boundary and dramatically increasing flood risk. While direct observations of the AMOC are still too short to infer long-term trends, we show here that the AMOC-induced changes in gyre-scale heat content, superimposed on the global mean sea level rise, are already influencing the frequency of floods along the United States southeastern seaboard. We find that ocean heat convergence, being the primary driver for interannual sea level changes in the subtropical North Atlantic, has led to an exceptional gyre-scale warming and associated dynamic sea level rise since 2010, accounting for 30-50% of flood days in 2015-2020.

Ocean bottom pressure-gauge (OBP) records play an essential role in seafloor geodesy. Oceanographic fluctuations in OBP data, however, pose as a significant noise source in seafloor transient crustal deformation observations, including slow slip events (SSEs), making it crucial to evaluate them quantitatively. To extract the significant fluctuation phenomena common to multiple observation networks, including oceanographic fluctuations and tectonic signals, we applied principal component analysis (PCA) to the 3-year Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) OBP time series for 40 stations during 2016-2019. PCA could separate several oceanographic signals based on the characteristics of their spatial distributions, although evident transient tectonic signals could not be confirmed from the observed pressure records during this observed period. The spatial distribution of the first four principal components (PCs) reflected the common component, inclined component along sea depth, longitude component, and parabola-like pattern, respectively. By subtracting each PC (in particular, PC-2 and PC-4) from the time series, we could significantly reduce the sea depth dependence of OBP records, which has been highlighted in several previous studies and is also evident in this region. We interpreted PCs 2-4 as the reflection of the strength and meandering of ocean geostrophic currents based on a comparison with the PC spatial distribution of the numerical oceanographic models. In addition, to evaluate the ability of PCA to separate transient tectonic signal from OBP time series, including oceanographic fluctuations, we conducted a synthetic ramp assuming an SSE by rectangular fault and then applied PCA. The assumed synthetic tectonic signal could be separated from the oceanographic signals and included in the principal component independently depending on its amplitude, suggesting that the spatial distribution of each PC would change if the amplitude of the synthetic signal were sufficiently large. We propose a transient event-detection method based on the spatial distribution difference of a specific PC with or without a tectonic signal. We used the normalized inner product (NIP) between these PCs as the indicator of their similarities. This method can detect transient tectonic signals more significantly than the moment-magnitude scale of 5.9 from OBP records.

Ocean chlorophyll time series exhibit temporal variability on a range of timescales due to environmental change, ecological interactions, dispersal, and other factors. The differences in chlorophyll temporal variability observed at stationary locations (Eulerian perspective) or following water parcels (Lagrangian perspective) are poorly understood. Here we contrasted the temporal variability of ocean chlorophyll in these two observational perspectives, using global drifter trajectories and satellite chlorophyll to generate matched pairs of Eulerian-Lagrangian time series. We found that for most ocean locations, chlorophyll variances measured in Eulerian and Lagrangian perspectives are not statistically different. In high latitude areas, the two perspectives may capture similar variability due to the large spatial scale of chlorophyll patches. In localized regions of the ocean, however, chlorophyll variability measured in these two perspectives may significantly differ. For example, in some western boundary currents, temporal chlorophyll variability in the Lagrangian perspective was greater than in the Eulerian perspective. In these cases, the observing platform travels rapidly across strong environmental gradients and constrained by the shelf topography, potentially leading to greater Lagrangian variability in chlorophyll. In contrast, we found that Eulerian chlorophyll variability exceeded Lagrangian variability in some key upwelling zones and boundary current extensions. In these cases, variability in the nutrient supply may generate intermittent chlorophyll anomalies in the Eulerian perspective, while the Lagrangian perspective sees the transport of such anomalies off-shore. These findings aid with the interpretation of chlorophyll time series from different sampling methodologies, inform observational network design, and guide validation of marine ecosystem models.

The formation and intensification of typhoons is a complex process where energy and mass exchanges happen between the ocean and the atmosphere. In most typhoon numerical studies, a static ocean and a dynamic atmosphere are used to reduce the complexity of modeling. Using the COAWST model, we studied the air-sea interactions of Typhoon Mujigae in 2015, Typhoon Merbok in 2017, and Typhoon Hato in 2017 over the South China Sea. With different translation speeds, track shapes, and intensities between these cyclones, they act as an excellent case study to analyze the air-sea coupling in the models. The inclusion of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere is found to improve the typhoon track simulation significantly. The bias in the cyclone tracks is reduced by 10%-40% in the coupled model. The upper ocean response to the typhoon was also analyzed using the coupled model output. The coupled simulations show that the major energy extraction occurs to the right of the track, which is consistent with satellite observation and latent heat release analysis. The coupling process shows the air-sea interactions and exchanges in the upper ocean along with the energy released during the passage of typhoons. The heat budget analysis shows that the cooling of the upper ocean is mainly attributed to the advection associated with the typhoon forcing. This study shows that it is necessary to include ocean feedback while analyzing a typhoon, and the application of coupled models can improve our understanding as well as the forecasting capability of typhoons.

Internal waves (IWs) are generated in all the oceans, and their amplitudes are large, especially in regions that receive a large amount of freshwater from nearby rivers, which promote highly stratified waters. When barotropic tides encounter regions of shallow bottom-topography, internal tides (known as IWs of the tidal period) are generated and propagated along the pycnocline due to halocline or thermocline. In the North Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Andaman Sea receive a large volume of freshwater from major rivers and net precipitation during the summer monsoon. This study addresses the characteristics of internal tides in the BoB and Andaman Sea using NASA's Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) project's high-resolution (1/48° and hourly) salinity estimates at 1 m depth (hereafter written as ECCO salinity) during September 2011-October 2012, time series of temperature, and salinity profiles from moored buoys. A comparison is made between ECCO salinity and NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) salinity and Aquarius salinity. The time series of ECCO salinity and observed salinity are subjected to bandpass filtering with an 11-14 h period and 22-26 h period to detect and estimate the characteristics of semi-diurnal and diurnal period internal tides. Our analysis reveals that the ECCO salinity captured well the surface imprints of diurnal period internal tide propagating through shallow pycnocline (~50 m depth) due to halocline, and the latter suppresses the impact of semi-diurnal period internal tide propagating at thermocline (~100 m depth) reaching the sea surface. The semi-diurnal (diurnal) period internal tides have their wavelengths and phase speeds increased (decreased) from the central Andaman Sea to the Sri Lanka coast. Propagation of diurnal period internal tide is dominant in the northern BoB and northern Andaman Sea.

Meltwater content and pathways determine the impact of Antarctica's melting ice shelves on ocean circulation and climate. Using ocean glider observations, we quantify meltwater distribution and transport within the Bellingshausen Sea's Belgica Trough. Meltwater is present at different densities and with different turbidities: both are indicative of a layer's ice shelf of origin. To investigate how ice-shelf origin separates meltwater into different export pathways, we compare these observations with high-resolution tracer-release model simulations. Meltwater filaments branch off the Antarctic Coastal Current into the southwestern trough. Meltwater also enters the Belgica Trough in the northwest via an extended western pathway, hence the greater observed southward (0.50 mSv) than northward (0.17 mSv) meltwater transport. Together, the observations and simulations reveal meltwater retention within a cyclonic in-trough gyre, which has the potential to promote climactically important feedbacks on circulation and future melting.

Freshwater content (FWC), generally characterized in the Arctic Ocean by salinities lower than 34.8 psu, has shifted in both quantity and distribution in recent decades in the Arctic Ocean. This has been largely driven by changes in the volume and salinity of freshwater sources and the direction and magnitude of major currents. In this study, we analyze the variability in FWC and other physical oceanographic variables from 1993 to 2021 in the Arctic Ocean and Beaufort Gyre (BG) using in situ and remote sensing observations and five ocean models and reanalysis products. Generally, ocean models and reanalysis products underestimate FWC in the BG when compared with observations. Modeled FWC and sea surface height (SSH) in the BG are well correlated during the time period and are similar to correlations of the observational data of these variables. ORAS5 compares best to EN4 salinity over the entire study period, although GLORYS12 agrees well pre-2007 and SODA post-2007. Outside the BG, consistency between modeled SSH, FWC, and limited observations varies between models. These comparisons help identify discrepancies in ocean model and reanalysis products while highlighting areas where future improvements are necessary to further our understanding of Arctic FWC. As observations are scarce in the Arctic, these products and their accuracy are important to studying this dynamic and vulnerable ocean.

Future projections indicate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken and shoal in response to global warming, but models disagree widely over the amount of weakening. We analyze projected AMOC weakening in 27 CMIP6 climate models, in terms of changes in three return pathways of the AMOC. The branch of the AMOC that returns through diffusive upwelling in the Indo-Pacific, but does not later upwell in the Southern Ocean (SO), is particularly sensitive to warming, in part, because shallowing of the deep flow prevents it from entering the Indo-Pacific via the SO. The present-day strength of this Indo-Pacific pathway provides a strong constraint on the projected AMOC weakening. However, estimates of this pathway using four observationally based methods imply a wide range of AMOC weakening under the SSP5-8.5 scenario of 29%-61% by 2100. Our results suggest that improved observational constraints on this pathway would substantially reduce uncertainty in 21st century AMOC decline.

Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) is one of the most important water masses globally in taking up anthropogenic heat and carbon dioxide. However, its long-term changes in response to varying climatic conditions are not well understood. We use an ocean state estimate to analyze SAMW volume budgets for the period 1992 to 2017. They reveal a decadal SAMW volume reorganization comparable to the long-term trend in Indian Ocean, and a multi-decadal volume reorganization exceeding the long-term trend in the Pacific. In both sectors, the SAMW reorganization exhibits a two-layer density structure, with compensating volume changes of lighter and denser SAMW, driven by heat flux changes in the Indian sector and central Pacific and freshwater flux changes in the southeast Pacific. This variability is governed by a cumulative effect of surface flux anomalies associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Shorter-term trends observed during the Argo period are largely explained by this variability.

Sea level variabilities in the southwest Pacific contribute to the variations of equatorial current bifurcation and the Indonesian Throughflow transport. These processes are closely related to the recharge/discharge of equatorial heat content and dynamic distribution of anthropogenic ocean heating over the Indo-Pacific basin, thus being of profound significance for climate variability and change. Here we identify the major features of seasonal and interannual sea level variabilities in this region, confirming the dominance of the first baroclinic mode in the tropics (contributing 60-80% of the variances) and higher baroclinic modes in the extra-tropics (40-60% of the seasonal variance). Seasonally, except in the western Coral Sea where the Ekman pumping is significant, the wind-driven first-mode baroclinic Rossby waves originating to the east of the dateline control the sea level variations over most tropical Pacific regions. In the domain where the 1.5-layer reduced gravity model becomes deficient, the surface heat fluxes dominate, explaining ~40-80% of sea level variance. For interannual variability, ~40-60% of the variance are El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related. The wind-driven Rossby and Kelvin waves east of the dateline explain ~40-78% of the interannual variance in the tropical Pacific. Outside the tropics, small-scale diffusive processes are presumed critical for interannual variability according to a thermodynamic analysis using an eddy-permitting ocean model simulation. Further process and predictive understandings can be achieved with the coupled climate models properly parameterizing the sub-grid-scale processes.

The kinetic energy transfer between the atmosphere and oceans, called wind work, affects ocean dynamics, including near-inertial oscillations and internal gravity waves, mesoscale eddies, and large-scale zonal jets. For the most part, the recent numerical estimates of global wind work amplitude are almost five times larger than those reported 10 years ago. This large increase is explained by the impact of the broad range of spatial and temporal scales covered by winds and currents, the smallest of which has only recently been uncovered by increasingly high-resolution modeling efforts. However, existing satellite observations do not fully sample this broad range of scales. The present study assesses the capabilities of ODYSEA, a conceptual satellite mission to estimate the amplitude of wind work in the global ocean. To this end, we use an ODYSEA measurement simulator fed by the outputs of a km scale coupled ocean-atmosphere model to estimate wind work globally. The results indicate that compared with numerical truth estimates, the ODYSEA instrument performs well globally, except for latitudes north of 40^oN during summer due to unresolved storm evolution. This performance is explained by the wide-swath properties of ODYSEA (a 1700 km wide swath with 5 km posting for winds and surface currents), its twice-a-day (daily) coverage at mid-latitudes (low latitudes), and the insensitivity of the wind work to uncorrelated errors in the estimated wind and current.

This study examines the process of water-column stratification breakdown in Antarctic coastal polynyas adjacent to an ice shelf with a cavity underneath. This first part of a two-part sequence seeks to quantify the influence of offshore katabatic winds, alongshore winds, air temperature, and initial ambient stratification on the timescales of polynya destratification through combining process-oriented numerical simulations and analytical scaling. In particular, the often-neglected influence of wind-driven circulation on the lateral transport of the water formed at the polynya surface - which we call Polynya Source Water (PSW) - is systematically examined here. First, an ice shelf-sea ice-ocean coupled numerical model is adapted to simulate the process of PSW formation in polynyas of various configurations. The simulations highlight that i) before reaching the bottom, majority of the PSW is actually carried away from the polynya by katabatic wind-induced offshore outflow, diminishing water-column mixing in the polynya and intrusion of the PSW into the neighboring ice shelf cavity, and ii) alongshore coastal easterly winds, through inducing onshore Ekman transport, reduce offshore loss of the PSW and enhance polynya mixing and PSW intrusion into the cavity. Second, an analytical scaling of the destratification timescale is derived based on fundamental physical principles to quantitatively synthesize the influence of the physical factors, which is then verified by independent numerical sensitivity simulations. This work provides insights into the mechanisms that drive temporal and cross-polynya variations in stratification and PSW formation in Antarctic coastal polynyas, and establishes a framework for studying differences among the polynyas in the ocean.

The continuous, moored observation revealed significant variability in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Cause of such AMOC variability is an extensively studied subject. This study focuses on the short-term variability, which ranges up to seasonal and interannual timescales. A mechanism is proposed from the perspective of ocean water redistribution by layers. By offering explanations for four phenomena of AMOC variability in the subtropical and tropical oceans (seasonality, meridional coherence, layered-transport compensation as observed at 26.5°N, and the 2009/2010 downturn occurred at 26.5°N), this mechanism suggests that the short-term AMOC variabilities in the entire subtropical and tropical regions are governed by a basin-wide adiabatic water redistribution process or the so-called sloshing dynamics rather than diapycnal processes.

The interannual-decadal variability in the upper-ocean salinity of the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) was found to be highly correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Based on multisource data, this study revealed that this ENSO-like salinity variability mainly resides in the domain between 13°S-30°S and 100°E-120°E, and at depths above 150 m. This variability is principally driven by meridional geostrophic velocity (MGV), which changes with the zonal pattern of the sea surface height (SSH). Previous studies have reported that the variability in the SSH in the south Indian Ocean is principally driven by local-wind forcing and eastern-boundary forcing. Here the eastern-boundary forcing denotes the influence of SSH anomaly radiated from the western coast of Australia. A recent study emphasized the contribution of local-wind forcing in salinity variability in the SEIO, for its significant role in generation of the zonal dipole pattern of SSH anomaly in the south Indian Ocean, which was considered to be responsible for the anomalous MGV in the SEIO. While our results revealed a latitudinal difference between the domain where the SSH dipole pattern exists (north of 20°S) and the region in which the ENSO-like salinity variability is strongest (20°S-30°S), suggesting that this salinity variability cannot be attributed entirely to the SSH dipole pattern. Our further investigation shows that, the MGV in the SEIO changes with local zonal SSH gradient that principally driven by eastern-boundary forcing. In combination with the strong meridional salinity gradient, the boundary-driven MGV anomalies cause significant meridional salinity advection and eventually give rise to the observed ENSO-like salinity variability. This study revealed the leading role of eastern-boundary forcing in interannual variability of the upper-ocean salinity in the SEIO.

We present the China Ocean ReAnalysis version 2 (CORA2) in this paper. We compare CORA2 with its predecessor, CORA1, and with other ocean reanalysis products created between 2004 and 2019 [GLORYS12v1 (Global Ocean reanalysis and Simulation), HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model), GREP (Global ocean Reanalysis Ensemble Product), SODA3 (Simple Ocean Data Assimilation, version 3), and ECCO4 (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, version 4)], to demonstrate its improvements and reliability. In addition to providing tide and sea ice signals, the accuracy and eddy kinetic energy (EKE) of CORA2 are also improved owing to an enhanced resolution of 9 km and updated data assimilation scheme compared with CORA1. Error analysis shows that the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of CORA2 sea-surface temperature (SST) remains around 0.3°C, which is comparable to that of GREP and smaller than those of the other products studied. The subsurface temperature (salinity) RMSE of CORA2, at 0.87°C (0.15 psu), is comparable to that of SODA3, smaller than that of ECCO4, and larger than those of GLORYS12v1, HYCOM, and GREP. CORA2 and GLORYS12v1 can better represent sub-monthly-scale variations in subsurface temperature and salinity than the other products. Although the correlation coefficient of sea-level anomaly (SLA) in CORA2 does not exceed 0.8 in the whole region, as those of GREP and GLORYS12v1 do, it is more effective than ECCO4 and SODA3 in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. CORA2 can reproduce the variations in steric sea level and ocean heat content (OHC) on the multiple timescales as the other products. The linear trend of the steric sea level of CORA2 is closer to that of GREP than that of the other products, and the long-term warming trends of global OHC in the high-resolution CORA2 and GLORYS12v1 are greater than those in the low-resolution EN4 and GREP. Although CORA2 shows overall poorer performance in the Atlantic Ocean, it still achieves good results from 2009 onward. We plan to further improve CORA2 by assimilating the best available observation data using the incremental analysis update (IAU) procedure and improving the SLA assimilation method.

An existing approximately neutral surface, the ω surface, minimizes the neutrality error and hence also exhibits very small fictitious dianeutral diffusivity D^f that arises when lateral diffusion is applied along the surface, in nonneutral directions. However, there is also a spurious dianeutral advection that arises when lateral advection is applied nonneutrally along the surface; equivalently, lateral advection applied along the neutral tangent planes creates a vertical velocity e^sp through the ω surface. Mathematically, e^sp = u · s, where u is the lateral velocity and s is the slope error of the surface. We find that e^sp produces a leading-order term in the evolution equations of temperature and salinity, being similar in magnitude to the influence of cabbeling and thermobaricity. We introduce a new method to form an approximately neutral surface, called an ω_u·s surface, that minimizes e^sp by adjusting its depth so that the slope error is nearly perpendicular to the lateral velocity. The e^sp on a surface cannot be reduced to zero when closed streamlines contain nonzero neutral helicity. While e^sp on the ω_u·s surface is over 100 times smaller than that on the ω surface, the fictitious dianeutral diffusivity on the ω_u·s surface is larger, nearly equal to the canonical 10⁻⁵ m² s ⁻¹ background diffusivity. Thus, we also develop a method to minimize a combination of e ^sp and D^f , yielding the ω_u·s+s² surface, which is recommended for inverse models since it has low D^f and it significantly decreases e^sp through the surface, which otherwise would be a leading term that cannot be ignored in the conservation equations.

The 2010-2012 Acoustic Technology for Observing the Interior of the Arctic Ocean (ACOBAR) experiment provided acoustic tomography data along three 167-301 km long sections in Fram Strait between Greenland and Spitsbergen. Ocean sound speed data were assimilated into a regional numerical ocean model using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model-Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean four-dimensional variational (MITgcm-ECCO 4DVAR) assimilation system. The resulting state estimate matched the assimilated sound speed time series, the root mean squared (RMS) error of the sound speed estimate (~0.4 m s ⁻¹ ) is smaller than the uncertainty of the measurement (~0.8 m s ⁻¹ ). Data assimilation improved modeled range-and-depth-averaged ocean temperatures at the 78°50'N oceanographic mooring section in Fram Strait. The RMS error of the state estimate (0.21°C) is comparable to the uncertainty of the interpolated mooring section (0.23°C). Lack of depth information in the assimilated ocean sound speed measurements caused an increased temperature bias in the upper ocean (0-500 m). The correlations with the mooring section were not improved as short-term variations in the mooring measurements and the ocean state estimate do not always coincide in time. This is likely due to the small-scale eddying and non-linearity of the ocean circulation in Fram Strait. Furthermore, the horizontal resolution of the state estimate (4.5 km) is eddy-permitting, rather than eddy resolving. Thus, the state estimate cannot represent the full ocean dynamics of the region. This study is the first to demonstrate the usefulness of large-scale acoustic measurements for improving ocean state estimates at high latitudes.

The Beaufort duct (BD) is a subsurface sound channel in the western Arctic Ocean formed by cold Pacific Winter Water (PWW) sandwiched between warmer Pacific Summer Water (PSW) and Atlantic Water (AW). Sound waves can be trapped in this duct and travel long distances without experiencing lossy surface/ice interactions. This study analyzes BD vertical and temporal variability using moored oceanographic measurements from two yearlong acoustic transmission experiments (2016-2017 and 2019-2020). The focus is on BD normal mode propagation through observed ocean features, such as eddies and spicy intrusions, where direct numerical simulations and the mode interaction parameter (MIP) are used to quantify ducted mode coupling strength. The observations show strong PSW sound speed variability, weak variability in the PWW, and moderate variability in the AW, with typical time scales from days to weeks. For several hundreds Hertz propagation, the BD modes are relatively stable, except for rare episodes of strong sound speed perturbations. The MIP identifies a resonance condition such that the likelihood of coupling is greatest when there is significant sound speed variability in the horizontal wave number band 1/11 < k_h < 1/5 km⁻¹. MITgcm ocean model results are used to estimate sound speed fluctuations in this resonance regime.

The relative contribution of atmospheric forcing, oceanic preconditioning, and sea ice to Labrador Sea Deep Convection (LSDC) is investigated by conducting three ensemble experiments using a global coupled sea ice-ocean model for the first time. Simulated results show that the atmospheric activities dominate the interannual and decadal variability, accounting for 70% of LSDC. Oceanic preconditioning is more significant in the shallow LSDC years that the water column is stable, accounting for 21%, especially in the central Labrador Sea and Irminger Sea. Moreover, the sea ice contribution is negligible over the whole Labrador Sea, while its contribution is significant in the sea ice-covered slope regions, accounting for 20%. The increasingly importance of sea ice on LSDC and the water mass transformation will be found in the North Atlantic Ocean, if the Arctic sea ice declines continuously. Additionally, there is a 10 Sv increase (85%) in atmospheric forcing to the subpolar gyre in the North Atlantic Ocean, while oceanic preconditioning contributes a 7 Sv decrease (12%). These findings highlight the importance of summer oceanic preconditioning to LSDC and the subpolar gyre, and therefore it should be appropriately accounted for in future studies.

Water mass transformation (WMT) around the Antarctic margin controls Antarctica Bottom Water formation and the abyssal limb of the global meridional overturning circulation, besides mediating ocean-ice shelf exchange, ice sheet stability and its contribution to sea level rise. However, the mechanisms controlling the rate of WMT in the Antarctic shelf are poorly understood due to the lack of observations and the inability of climate models to simulate those mechanisms, in particular beneath the floating ice shelves. We used a circum-Antarctic ocean-ice shelf model to assess the contribution of surface fluxes, mixing, and ocean-ice shelf interaction to the WMT on the continental shelf. The salt budget dominates the WMT rates, with only a secondary contribution from the heat budget. Basal melt of ice shelves drives buoyancy gain at lighter density classes (27.2<σ_θ<27.6 kg m^-3 ), while salt input associated with sea-ice growth in coastal polynyas drives buoyancy loss at heavier densities (σ_θ > 27.6). We found a large sensitivity of the WMT rates to model horizontal resolution, tides and topography within the Filchner-Ronne, East and West Antarctica ice shelf cavities. In the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, an anticyclonic circulation in front of the Ronne Depression regulates the rates of basal melting/refreezing and WMT and is substantially affected by tides and model resolution. Model resolution is also found to affect the Antarctic Slope Current in both East and West Antarctica, impacting the on-shelf heat delivery, basal melt and WMT. Moreover, the representation of the ice shelf draft associated with model resolution impacts the freezing temperature and thus basal melt and WMT rates in the East Antarctica. These results highlight the importance of resolving small-scale features of the flow and topography, and to include the effects of tidal forcing, to adequately represent water mass transformations on the shelf that directly influence the abyssal global overturning circulation.

Typhoons disturb the upper ocean, weaken the physical stratification, and induce temporal and spatial changes in primary production, which rapidly alter the distribution and diversity of fishery resources. This study analyzed the response of oceanic conditions and fishery resources on the sea area of the typhoon pathway in the East/Japan Sea (Type A: typhoon passed from southwest to northeast; Type B: typhoon dissipated in the southwest; Type C: typhoon passed from southeast to northeast; and Type D: typhoons passed from southwest to northwest). For Types A and B, the sea surface temperature (SST) decreased in all areas, and Chl-a showed the largest fluctuations in the southwest. For Type C, the SST variation was reduced in the eastern part, stratification was strengthened, and Chl-a did not differ significantly in each area. For Type D, SST and Chl-a showed significant variations in the western part. The biomass of fishery resources increased along the typhoon path for each type, and the diversity increased for Types A and D but decreased for Type B; however, the diversity and catch of fishery resources increased in the northeast for Type C. This study contributes to understanding the impact of typhoon pathway changes on the marine environment and ecosystem.

Passage of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) water through the Indian Ocean constitutes an essential section of the upper limb of the global ocean conveyor belt. Although existing studies have identified a major exit of the ITF water to the Atlantic Ocean through the Agulhas Current system, our knowledge regarding other possible destinations and primary pathways remains limited. This study applies the Connectivity Modeling System (CMS) particle tracking algorithm to seven model-based ocean current datasets. The results reveal a robust return path of the ITF water to the Pacific Ocean. The partition ratio between the Atlantic and Pacific routes is 1.60 ± 0.54 to 1, with the uncertainty representing interdataset spread. The average transit time across the Indian Ocean is 10-20 years to the Atlantic and 15-30 years to the Pacific. The "transit velocity" is devised to describe the three-dimensional pathways in a quantitative sense. Its distribution demonstrates that the recirculation structures in the southwestern subtropical Indian Ocean favor the exit to the Atlantic, while the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Southern Ocean serves as the primary corridor to the Pacific. Our analysis also suggests the vital impact of vertical motions. In idealized tracing experiments inhibiting vertical currents and turbulent mixing, more water tends to linger over the Indian Ocean or return to the Pacific. Turbulence mixing also contributes to vertical motions but only slightly affects the destinations and pathways of ITF water.

In order to figure out the associated underlying dynamical processes of the 2014-2015 warming event, we used the ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean) reanalysis from 1993 to 2016 and two combined scatterometers, QuikSCAT and ASCAT, to analysis hydrodynamic condition and ocean heat budget balance process in the equatorial tropical pacific. The spatiotemporal characteristics of that warming event were revealed by comparing the results with a composite El Niño. The results showed that the significant differences between the 2014 and 2015 warming periods were the magnitudes and positions of the equatorial easterly wind anomalies during the summer months. The abruptly easterly wind anomalies of 2014 that spread across the entire equatorial Pacific triggered the upwelling of the equatorial Kelvin waves and pushed the eastern edge of the warm pool back westward. These combined effects caused abrupt decreases in the sea surface temperatures (SST) and upper ocean heat content (OHC) and damped the 2014 warming process into an El Niño. In addition, the ocean budget of the upper 300 m of the El Niño 3.4 region showed that different dynamical processes were responsible for different warming phases. For example, at the beginning of 2014 and 2015, the U advection and subsurface processes played dominant roles in the positive ocean heat content tendency. During the easterly wind anomalies period of 2014, the U advection process mainly caused a negative tendency and halted the development of the warming phase. In regard to the easterly wind anomalies of 2015, the U advection and subsurface processes were weaker negatively when compared with that in 2014. However, the V advection processes were consistently positive, taking a leading role in the positive trends observed in the middle of 2015.

Submesoscale oceanic structures (<10-20 km) such as eddies and fronts are often difficult to describe given the influence of the mesoscale. In order to characterize the surface signatures of submesoscale structures, we utilize a custom spatial filtering function to separate the meso- and large-scale sea surface height (SSH) signal from the small scale SSH signal of 1/48° high resolution estimates provided by NASA's Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Oceans (ECCO) project. In this study, we use ECCO estimates from a 14-month global simulation between September 2011 and November 2012 with a 2 km horizontal grid spacing in the Gulf of Mexico. We then use an eddy detection and tracking algorithm to identify persistent circular features on both scales, giving rise to an atlas of submesoscale eddy-like variabilities (SEVs). We briefly investigate the geographic and temporal variability of SEVs as a whole before collocating SEVs inside mesoscale eddies, allowing us to evaluate the characteristics of internal SEVs and the impact of SEVs on mesoscale eddies. We find that SEVs, both anticyclonic and cyclonic, are ubiquitous inside mesoscale eddies with lifetimes longer than a week, accounting for an average of 10-20% of the spatial area and eddy kinetic energy of mesoscale eddies. We also show that internal SEVs are persistently associated with temperature and salinity anomalies in both eddy centers and edges of up to 0.1 °C and 0.05 psu, with anticyclonic internal SEVs being warmer and fresher while cyclonic internal SEVs are colder and saltier. Finally, we examine the life cycle of an anticyclonic Loop Current eddy, demonstrating that the number and intensity of internal SEVs within increases as the eddy approaches separation from the Loop Current until a maximum is obtained just after separation. In light of forthcoming submesoscale SSH observations from NASA's Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, our results showcase the variability of submesoscale eddy structures and their possible implications for biogeochemical cycling, the inverse energy cascade, and Loop Current prediction techniques.

Abstract. The overturning streamfunction as measured at the OSNAP (Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program) mooring array represents the transformation of warm, salty Atlantic Water into cold, fresh North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). The magnitude of the overturning at the OSNAP array can therefore be linked to the transformation by air-sea buoyancy fluxes and mixing in the region north of the OSNAP array. Here, we estimate these water mass transformations using observational-based, reanalysis-based and model-based datasets. Our results highlight that air-sea fluxes alone cannot account for the time-mean magnitude of the overturning at OSNAP, and therefore a residual mixing-driven transformation is required to explain the difference. A cooling by air-sea heat fluxes and a mixing-driven freshening in the Nordic Seas, Iceland Basin and Irminger Sea precondition the warm, salty Atlantic Water, forming subpolar mode water classes in the subpolar North Atlantic. Mixing in the interior of the Nordic Seas, over the Greenland-Scotland Ridge and along the boundaries of the Irminger Sea and Iceland Basin drive a water mass transformation that leads to the convergence of volume in the water mass classes associated with NADW. Air-sea buoyancy fluxes and mixing therefore play key and complementary roles in setting the magnitude of the overturning within the subpolar North Atlantic and Nordic Seas. This study highlights that, for ocean and climate models to realistically simulate the overturning circulation in the North Atlantic, the small-scale processes that lead to the mixing-driven formation of NADW must be adequately represented within the model's parameterisation scheme.

The 5-year Ocean Regulation of Climate by Heat and Carbon Sequestration and Transports (ORCHESTRA) programme and its 1-year extension ENCORE (ENCORE is the National Capability ORCHESTRA Extension) was an approximately 11-million-pound programme involving seven UK research centres that finished in March 2022. The project sought to radically improve our ability to measure, understand and predict the exchange, storage and export of heat and carbon by the Southern Ocean. It achieved this through a series of milestone observational campaigns in combination with model development and analysis. Twelve cruises in the Weddell Sea and South Atlantic were undertaken, along with mooring, glider and profiler deployments and aircraft missions, all contributing to measurements of internal ocean and air-sea heat and carbon fluxes. Numerous forward and adjoint numerical experiments were developed and supported by the analysis of coupled climate models. The programme has resulted in over 100 peer-reviewed publications to date as well as significant impacts on climate assessments and policy and science coordination groups. Here, we summarize the research highlights of the programme and assess the progress achieved by ORCHESTRA/ENCORE and the questions it raises for the future.

Phytoplankton in the equatorial western Pacific tends to bloom during consecutive ('double-dip') La Niña events with nonlinear characteristics: extremely high chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations typically occur during the second-year La Niña events even when the associated SST anomalies are significantly weakened. Photosynthetically available radiation is found to have the strongest correlation with the equatorial western Pacific Chl-a fluctuations. However, barrier layer variation is critical in driving the strong bloom events seen in the second-year La Niña, which can be further explained by the nonlinear heat advection within the isothermal layer. To improve the current climate models' performance in simulating the western Pacific phytoplankton bloom events, it is recommended that the influence of barrier layer should be better considered.

The Southern Ocean closes the global overturning circulation and is key to the regulation of carbon, heat, biological production, and sea level. However, the dynamics of the general circulation and upwelling pathways remain poorly understood. Here, a physics-informed unsupervised machine learning framework using principled constraints is used. A unifying framework is proposed invoking a semi-circumpolar supergyre south of the Antarctic circumpolar current: a massive series of leaking sub-gyres spanning the Weddell and Ross seas that are connected and maintained via rough topography that acts as scaffolding. The supergyre framework challenges the conventional view of having separate circulation structures in the Weddell and Ross seas and suggests that idealized models and zonally-averaged frameworks may be of limited utility for climate applications. Machine learning was used to reveal areas of coherent driving forces within a vorticity-based analysis. Predictions from the supergyre framework are supported by available observations and could aid observational and modelling efforts to study this climatologically key region undergoing rapid change.

Accurate representation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in global climate models is crucial for reliable future climate predictions and projections. In this study, we used 42 coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models to analyze low-frequency variability of the AMOC driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our results showed that the influence of the simulated NAO on the AMOC differs significantly between the models. We showed that the large intermodel diversity originates from the diverse oceanic mean state, especially over the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA), where deep water formation of the AMOC occurs. For some models, the climatological sea ice extent covers a wide area of the SPNA and restrains efficient air-sea interactions, making the AMOC less sensitive to the NAO. In the models without the sea-ice-covered SPNA, the upper-ocean mean stratification critically affects the relationship between the NAO and AMOC by regulating the AMOC sensitivity to surface buoyancy forcing. Our results pinpoint the oceanic mean state as an aspect of climate model simulations that must be improved for an accurate understanding of the AMOC.

Abstract. Many Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models have exhibited a substantial cold bias in the global mean surface temperature (GMST) in the latter part of the 20th century. An overly strong negative aerosol forcing has been suggested as a leading contributor to this bias. An updated configuration of UK Earth System Model (UKESM) version 1, UKESM1.1, has been developed with the aim of reducing the historical cold bias in this model. Changes implemented include an improved representation of SO₂ dry deposition, along with several other smaller modifications to the aerosol scheme and a retuning of some uncertain parameters of the fully coupled Earth system model. The Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) experiments, a six-member historical ensemble and a subset of future scenario simulations are completed. In addition, the total anthropogenic effective radiative forcing (ERF), its components and the effective and transient climate sensitivities are also computed. The UKESM1.1 preindustrial climate is warmer than UKESM1 by up to 0.75 K, and a significant improvement in the historical GMST record is simulated, with the magnitude of the cold bias reduced by over 50 %. The warmer climate increases ocean heat uptake in the Northern Hemisphere oceans and reduces Arctic sea ice, which is in better agreement with observations. Changes to the aerosol and related cloud properties are a driver of the improved GMST simulation despite only a modest reduction in the magnitude of the negative aerosol ERF (which increases by +0.08 W m⁻²). The total anthropogenic ERF increases from 1.76 W m⁻² in UKESM1 to 1.84 W m⁻² in UKESM1.1. The effective climate sensitivity (5.27 K) and transient climate response (2.64 K) remain largely unchanged from UKESM1 (5.36 and 2.76 K respectively).

The mid-depth ocean circulation is critically linked to actual changes in the long-term global climate system. However, in the past few decades, predictions based on ocean circulation models highlight the lack of data, knowledge, and long-term implications in climate change assessment. Here, using 842,421 observations produced by Argo floats from 2001-2020, and Lagrangian simulations, we show that only 3.8% of the mid-depth oceans, including part of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, can be regarded as accurately modelled, while other regions exhibit significant underestimations in mean current velocity. Knowledge of ocean circulation is generally more complete in the low-latitude oceans but is especially poor in high latitude regions. Accordingly, we propose improvements in forecasting, model representation of stochasticity, and enhancement of observations of ocean currents. The study demonstrates that knowledge and model representations of global circulation are substantially compromised by inaccuracies of significant magnitude and direction, with important implications for modelled predictions of currents, temperature, carbon dioxide sequestration, and sea-level rise trends.

Oceanic submesoscale flows are considered to be a crucial conduit for the downscale transfer of oceanic mesoscale kinetic energy and upper-ocean material exchange, both laterally and vertically, but defining observations revealing submesoscale dynamics and/or transport properties remain sparse. Here, we report on an elaborate observation of a warm and fresh filament intruding into a cyclonic mesoscale eddy. By integrating cruise measurements, satellite observations, particle-tracking simulations, and the trajectory of a surface drifter, we show that the filament originated from an anticyclonic eddy immediately to the west of the cyclonic eddy, and the evolution of the filament was mainly due to the geostrophic flows associated with the eddy pair. Our observations reveal the mass exchange of the eddy pair and suggest that submesoscale flows can degrade the coherence of mesoscale eddies, providing important implications for the transport properties of mesoscale eddies. Vigorous submesoscale turbulence was found within the eddy core region, due to filamentous intrusion and frontogenesis. Our findings have thus offered novel insights into the dynamics and transport properties of oceanic submesoscale flows, which should be taken into account in their simulation and parameterization in ocean and climate models.

Glacial fjord circulation modulates the connection between marine-terminating glaciers and the ocean currents offshore. These fjords exhibit a complex 3D circulation with overturning and horizontal recirculation components, which are both primarily driven by water mass transformation at the head of the fjord via subglacial discharge plumes and distributed meltwater plumes. However, little is known about the 3D circulation in realistic fjord geometries. In this study, we present high-resolution numerical simulations of three glacial fjords (Ilulissat, Sermilik, and Kangerdlugssuaq), which exhibit along-fjord overturning circulations similar to previous studies. However, one important new phenomenon that deviates from previous results is the emergence of multiple standing eddies in each of the simulated fjords, as a result of realistic fjord geometries. These standing eddies are long-lived, take months to spin up, and prefer locations over the widest regions of deep-water fjords, with some that periodically merge with other eddies. The residence time of Lagrangian particles within these eddies are significantly larger than waters outside of the eddies. These eddies are most significant for two reasons: 1) they account for a majority of the vorticity dissipation required to balance the vorticity generated by discharge and meltwater plume entrainment and act to spin down the overall recirculation and 2) if the eddies prefer locations near the ice face, their azimuthal velocities can significantly increase melt rates. Therefore, the existence of standing eddies is an important factor to consider in glacial fjord circulation and melt rates and should be taken into account in models and observations.

Abstract. Nitrous oxide is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) and ozone-depleting substance, whose atmospheric abundance has risen throughout the contemporary record. In this work, we carry out the first global hierarchical Bayesian inversion to solve for nitrous oxide emissions, which includes prior emissions with truncated Gaussian distributions and Gaussian model errors, in order to examine the drivers of the atmospheric surface growth rate. We show that both emissions and climatic variability are key drivers of variations in the surface nitrous oxide growth rate between 2011 and 2020. We derive increasing global nitrous oxide emissions, which are mainly driven by emissions between 0 and 30°N, with the highest emissions recorded in 2020. Our mean global total emissions for 2011-2020 of 17.2 (16.7-17.7 at the 95 % credible intervals) Tg N yr⁻¹, comprising of 12.0 (11.2-12.8) Tg N yr⁻¹ from land and 5.2 (4.5-5.9) Tg N yr⁻¹ from ocean, agrees well with previous studies, but we find that emissions are poorly constrained for some regions of the world, particularly for the oceans. The prior emissions used in this and other previous work exhibit a seasonal cycle in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere that is out of phase with the posterior solution, and there is a substantial zonal redistribution of emissions from the prior to the posterior. Correctly characterizing the uncertainties in the system, for example in the prior emission fields, is crucial for deriving posterior fluxes that are consistent with observations. In this hierarchical inversion, the model-measurement discrepancy and the prior flux uncertainty are informed by the data, rather than solely through "expert judgement". We show cases where this framework provides different plausible adjustments to the prior fluxes compared to inversions using widely adopted, fixed uncertainty constraints.